you are so dilusional!!! The rest of the world agrees that we would be nowhere close to the mess where we are now without the mess and greed of corporate America. Most people in the US have not even understood the implications yet. Everyone in the US needs to cut down and accept that growth cannot be sustained at levels politicians, financial leaders, and consumers thought it can be held up at. Maybe you should take a step back and re-think why we are where we are right now? Chinese growth rates? Chinese policies? Chinese consumers? Chinese manufacturers? Please explain because you simply dont make any sense. ]Quote from Renegen: Thank you for your input, but you must tell me how real estate DOUBLING in 6 months isn't debt fueled speculation but conservative economic development. Did that economy around that area double? And to think that most people use cash to buy houses, nonsense! One, if everyone uses cash, I can use debt and buy them at a cheap price and gain tremendous leverage. Two, banks don't make any money off of cash! They have every incentive to make mortgage loans. My personal opinion is that China has had a brutal fall from its drop in exports, but the stimulus is fanning domestic demand and the whole country is encouraged to spend. But which of these 2 forces wins out in the end? I don't know. Their prospect is somewhere in the middle of both extremes. And I don't hold any illusions that China is all perfect, they simply took advantage of the US's greed, China is a huge part of the problems we have today in the global economy. The Chinese leaders grew their economy TOO fast (because no one liked them anyway and they needed to provide jobs) and as a result the western countries were not able to adapt in time. It takes a long time to establish a knowledge economy. 10-20 years was not enough for american industry to shift, for politicians to adapt new growth strategies, so everyone said fuck it and speculated like crazy. A big part of the chinese "miracle" is nothing more than stealing american technology too. There are no illusions on my part. [/QUOTE]
asia - if you ever lose all your money on your Chinese investments don't worry. Just apply to work for the Chinese tourist board or better yet some govt. office in charge of promoting Chinese businesses to the world. You're more than well qualified.
Surely you don't actually believe that someone so dogmatic is on the level or could be a successful investor/speculator? Regards Johno
My figure included compounded growth rates, YOY. And yea, negative long-term GDP for US is a real possibility.
asiaprop, you are probably the most defensive person I've come across on any topic, ever. It's not absolutely the case, but I find that when people are as defensive as you are, typically their emotions have stolen the better part of their logic, in pressing or rebutting facts, figures and opinion. There have been many comments here which present a strong case as to why China's *official* representations on economic growth should be viewed with healthy skepticism, as well as why the Chinese economic system is particularly vulnerable to both bad asset depreciation and export driven shocks, but you don't want to even acknowledge that any of these comments have any merit, whatsoever. You seem completely dogmatic and close minded on all things China. Regards.
outstanding! bravo! what you just harnessed is the very same thing that a lot of the technical analysis indicators measure, as well as what we call "human nature" may I suggest? and I say that respectfully, so that you and yours, don't take offense or defense against my clearly incapable diplomatic (lack of) skills. most of the participants on these threads are traders, and as such are the worse leaches and opportunists you will meet, short of a political party convention, or a flea / shopping mall / market. most of the participants on these threads do not represent nor have the ability to do as you suggest, namely influence or affect anything outside of their direct sphere of influence, and especially not domestic policy or national direction we are traders. if your participation here is not to improve in trading the markets, then the purpose, direction, intent, focus and entire disposition of these threads, conversations and interchanges (discussions) will be lost. so, if you and yours are viewing these comments and perspectives from the viewpoint of improving one's own trading then, fault finding and as you mentioned, all this back and forth, or restating, is then purely meaningless.... I will complement you and the other commentators on this specific thread, with enlightening me with facts and details that are not covered in the general news media.... good trading to you! (i.e. stay focused! (i.e. on trading, not politics))
This one should do although it's 3 years old, more recent data will show an even more dramatic change. i am sure you can find it if got the time to google it. Note how the lower income bracket decreased significantly in 5 years, while middle almost doubled. Basically the salary went up significantly as large domestic/foreign companies started hiring the white collars, also replaced many expat with local workers as the population became familiar with the whole western corporate process/skillset. http://www.euromonitor.com/Chinas_middle_class_reaches_80_million foreigners cannot buy real estate in china, unless you are living AND working in china perm and can show paperwork to prove it. Even then you are only allowed to buy 1 primary residence. It's a retarded policy initiated by the govt to keep the real estate price under control, as they are afraid of a re bubble. But it's deep flawed, if someone is trying to put money in your country why the hell would you not take it. And of course there are speculators locally, but most of them buy the investment property with cash, and as stated there is no carry cost (tax+condo fees). So even if the RE market goes bad like it did in the last year, you wont have widespread foreclosures/auctions etc.. as they can hold the property indefinitely and just collect some rent. ----------- One thing a lot of "analysts" dont understand is how many people china has, and the extremes every one of them is willing to work to make money. Making money is the only thing on everyone's mind, from the guy working 12 hrs a day sweeping streets to the business owners. That's one of the reason why china grew so much... As someone said, for a company to be successful in china, all you need is the everyone to buy 1 of your product. Whether 1 bottle of soda, or 1 box of matches...
The two other problems China is facing at the moment is how to genuinely grow 700,000 jobs per month to keep pace with population growth, and at the same time, how to correct the massive income disparity that exists from coast to inland areas. China may have an average income of $3,200 U.S.D. per worker, but that is not a median figure, and there is a massive underclass that survives on a mere few hundred U.S.D. per year. Now that manufacturing is slowing down, it will be absolutely incumbent on the Chinese Government to stimulate their domestic consumers to keep spending money at home. This was achieved recently with the incentives to purchase new cars, but those are durable goods, purchased maybe once every 5 to 10 years, and a lot of the sales came from the countryside, which deeply lagged urban areas (and where additional incentives were given by the government). China will have a difficult time adjusting to a world where its exports to the U.S. and Europe have slumped by almost 50%. Not even rapid growth in the rest of Asia, given per capita incomes and a savings mentality, can compensate for that decline, hence the essential need to stimulate the Chinese consumer.
buddy, may I suggest you dont turn others' words around? I never said skepticism is misplaced when thinking of future growth rates in China. I never said China is in perfect shape and the stock market will go straight up from here. My point all along was that one should be a lot more skeptical about growth rates, debt levels, equity markets of all the other economies. I claimed (and supported the view with facts) that I see China to continuously outperform in relative terms the US, Europe, Japan. And I mentioned that the paranoia about China is totally misplaced. It may sound cruel but the number of small to mid-sized companies that closed down or slowed down, the number of workers layed off, even the number of people killed in the latest conflict pale in comparison to China's sheer size. Those numbers really mean nothing in the context of the larger picture. So, yes I do acknowledge that some of the earlier criticism about China has merit, but I oppose people like you who fall pray to some panic analysts without you having done your own homework nor have you ever traded the Chinese markets nor have you ever lived and worked there. So, call me defensive, heck, call me whatever you like, but I think I have supplied a couple more facts to support my views than you have. And guess what, mine were researched and written up on my own, not copied by... who was it again? Should I go on?
looks like China pulled the US once again out of the toilet, even if just for a few days...but isnt that anyway the average duration average Joe in the U.S. generally plans ahead, financially? Not bad considering how some guys here think they stand so much higher in society than the "chinks".