I have never been up in the air and i need something to tie me down. I am seeking a K.I.S.S. method and will only trade price. To start i will WATCH the 6E futures contract in the 10,000 vol. (anchor) and the 1000 vol. (entry). I will start with the premise that price bounces from one key level/zone to the next. Resistance being resistance = going to next lower key level. Support acting as support = going to next higher key level. Resistance flipped to support = going to next higher key level/zone. Support flipped to resistance = going to next lower. I define the key levels/zones as being the most obvious ones that price has already reversed at. Here we go.
In this uptrend, when price breaks below swing C from swing D, the upmove is in jeopardy. Price finds support and makes swing E, and price goes up to form F (finding resistance at the level formed by swing B), a LL. Then price moves down to form G, a HL, and then continues up, right through the level created by swings B and F, up to and through swing D. Now H is being formed as price has found support at the level made by swing D. Possible plays = -short from D to C (price finds resistance at swing B's level) -short from F to E -long from G to F and if price finds support at F's level, F to D If there was no context to support swing E, then it would only make sense if i had shorted from C to A, but then that 50% midpoint level acts as support. The midpoint then should be watched.
Been doing a lot of research and looking at charts and i think i have defined a good idea of how to define key pivot levels to use in intraday trading. If the larger timeframe is in an uptrend, you only look for longs and mark on your chart the price at which price found resistance at the previous HH in the anchor chart. This level serves as a target and a key point at which, if price is to continue the uptrend, it will have to flip/breakout past this level. Now here comes the hard part: if price then flips this level you will have to look at prior action to find the most meaningful point at which price found resistance, which becomes your next key level. You do not have to hold on from one level to another, but this is the safest bet. You could just use intraday LOTM (language of the market - as in intraday S/R flips) to guide you. But you always keep these pivot levels in mind so that you know where a possible reversal could happen. I guess you can look at the market as climbing to higher timeframe pivot levels by establishing intraday s/r levels. Watch support as it rises or falls by watching the intrday HHs and HLs. All i want to type for now.
Something i found in my archives: Anek> i highly suggest Anek> the following charts Anek> 100k Anek> 240 minutes Anek> learn to spot R becoming S Anek> and S becoming R Anek> never ever fade the trend of the 100k and 240min Stone> as in, don't try to pick a bottom on the 100k? Anek> on the contrary Anek> do try to pick top in the 100k Anek> but only Anek> if the trend is down Anek> if the trend is up Anek> do try to pick the bottom Anek> not the top Anek> basically Anek> do AHG1 Anek> on the anchor Anek> not intraday Anek> intraday is too noisy Anek> too volatile Anek> for instance Anek> imagine the anchor Anek> is doing_ Anek> a nasty downtrend Anek> and by downtrend Anek> i dont mean LL LHs Anek> i mean Anek> flipping S to Rs Anek> constantly flipping S to Rs Anek> thats a downtrend Anek> and the intraday Anek> happens to be doing an uptrend Anek> either hH HLs Anek> or Anek> flipping intraday Rs to Ss Anek> well Anek> if long Anek> you gonna want to kill it Anek> when price meets Anek> the last S of the anchor (Now supposedly R) Anek> and then Anek> look for a reversal Anek> on the intraday Anek> Fading the intraday trend Anek> because the anchor said, enough Anek> as you get more experienced Anek> such plays will merit Anek> AH entries Anek> holding multiple days Anek> etc etc Anek> dont get caught in the close @ 4pm bullshit Anek> if you entered wisely Anek> and with the trend Anek> you got nothing to worry about Anek> anchor trends dont change Anek> just like that Anek> anyway
no it won't work I know what you are thinking. You spent a year or maybe few years trying to figure charts out. And now you think you are close. So close you can taste it. What needs to occur to you is that SOME OF US HAVE SPENT 5-15 years on the subject you are on. and those of us older are less impressed with your plan I am not here to spell it out for you because you are my competition. BUT have a look at this What will happen to your strategy when volatility changes ? when you try the same thing on another stock or instrument ? they almost all require different edge when dealing with short term intra day, if your trades are large like 2-6 hr trades you could get away with it somehow and even then you have to know what you are doing but try it on smaller 1 min - 1 hr trades ? Stick around few more years and you'll either get really smart and wise or you will kill yourself. the end
Newbie traders should focus on using the same chart intervals for market analysis (anchor as you called it) and entry signals to truly keep it simple. Later, after some screen time (months to a year) with trade success, you can then move to using multi time frames (charts for anchor and entry being different). Most newbie traders can not manage multi frame trading...it's not easy nor simple with the context of lacking screen time and market experience. Also, here's a fact...most of the time price does not bounce from one key s/r level/zone to the next. Instead it goes right through it. However, sometimes it does bounce. Therefore, you need to decide if you want to trade levels/zones as breakouts (such happens most of the time as continuation) or as reversals (such happens sometimes but not as often as the breakouts). Simply, decide if you want to be a price continuation trader of s/r levels/zone or a price reversal trader of s/r levels/zones. Focus on one a few years prior to trying to do both...keep it simple. By the way, s/r levels or s/r zones are not trade signals by themselves. Therefore, your entry signal method should be independent from your s/r levels or zones. Thus, if your entry signal appears and it's not at a s/r level or s/r zone...you don't take the trade. Start posting charts...a lot of charts and less hindsight stuff. Thus, post charts of what you consider to be s/r levels or zones and then post a follow up chart to show how price reacted to those s/r levels or zones to help keep you focus. Hindsight chart analysis is problematic (will cause trade problems) if you use it as your only chart learning tool. Mark
Okay, here are s/r levels that have been created intraday...too many to know what to do with. Where buying noticeably overcome selling is a s point and where selling noticeably overcame buying is a r point.
Price went off previous s level, never saw anything saying 'up' at the point. Now it is at an r level. Can't see anything.