Bob's Bias

Discussion in 'Journals' started by bobcathy1, May 22, 2004.

  1. bobcathy1

    bobcathy1 Guest

    My husband Bob is a Blackjack Card Counter.
    Every single morning he watches Bloomberg and then gives me his daily bias.
    And for some reason, over the last year, he is about 80% right.

    The strategy is as follows.........
    Buy or sell 2 contracts at 9:35.
    Keep one until 11 and close it.
    Put in a stop loss at breakeven and
    keep the second one for the rest of the day closing out at 4:05.
    Follow this unless he says otherwise in the morning bias.

    This bias works best on NQ or ER2.

    So every morning I will put in his bias before 8:30 am.
    These are the trades for the last 4 weeks.

    4.26 Neutral +0
    4.27 Short +2.8
    4.28 Short +7.3
    4.29 Short +12.8
    4.30 Long -10

    ......+12.9=$1290 per ct

    5.03 Long +4
    5.04 Short -3
    5.05 Long +0
    5.06 Short +2
    5.07 Short +15

    ......+20=$2,000 per ct

    5.10 Short +5.9
    5.11 Long +8.1
    5.12 Short til 11 +8
    5.13 Short til 11 +1
    5.14 Short +1.7

    ......+24.7=$2,470 per ct

    5.17 Short -0
    5.18 Long +5
    5.19 Long -0
    5.20 Long +0
    5.21 Long +1

    ......+6=+$600 per ct

    Let's see what happens.:) :)
  2. Objectively tracking someones gut feel like this should
    prove very interesting.

    Just hope you do it long enough for it to be statistically valid.

    Good luck.


  3. "Put in a stop loss at breakeven"

    What does this mean *exactly*?
    How much time after you put in your orders?
    What if market goes opposite from position the minute you enter orders? How much of a stop do you use then?
  4. bobcathy1

    bobcathy1 Guest

    What means to me is.....take one off the table at 11 and THEN place your stop at your entry point. This is so I can have a nice peaceful lunch and a walk without worrying.

    If it moves against you within 15 minutes of placing the entry and it drops through the previous pivot high or low......well, it would be hard to hold on to......I might exit and re-enter when it passes that pivot once again in the predicted direction. But Futures wiggle a lot at the opening....this might produce more losses than it saves money.

    But remember, you are going to have losing days and winning days. Sorry about that :)
  5. bobcathy1

    bobcathy1 Guest

    I have been tracking this for a year myself. Been using it for 2 months as my bias for scalping and been writing it in my website for 1 month. It just requires patience. I tend to have a bad case of chicken feet.

    But I am finding the longer I hold on to a trade, the more money I make.

    Let's see what happens?:D
  6. primo


    dear bobcathy1,

    i wish u the best of luck and im sure it will work out for u.
    i have had the same experience with people that are not active in the market but follow the price of it once a day.
    they tend to be very accurate when and if they get a feeling for it.
    hope u will post on a regular basis.
  7. looking good...

    This bias type of trading is much easier to do while trading small size.... but hey, if it works keep at it!
  8. Very interesting...I will follow your journal daily. Good luck or more accurately I hope Bob has an edge and this will prove profitable for you both. One question: does Bob know that his calls are being used to trade real $$$?
  9. bobcathy1

    bobcathy1 Guest

    Today the bias is Neutral.:(
  10. jmis



    good luck to you both. i also trade with a bias going into the day. need a good stoploss though cuz you never know what curve ball the market will throw at ya.

    i looked at your homepage, here's waving to a fellow orchids lover. i wish i lived in florida ;)

    #10     May 24, 2004