I've been trading Eurex bonds for the last 7 years and would like to agree with the previous posters here that the Bobl going half ticks may well be the straw that breaks the camel's back for alot of traders. For me the Bobl has been the lynch pin of my strategy - everything I did across the three cntracts was based on where the Bobl was and its price action. It has served me quite well in the past however since the change to 1/2 ticks things have been pretty shaky. I agree that in our business of an absolute meritocracy you have to adapt or die - I'm sure that I'm good enough and will adapt over time, but the big question for me is can I be bothered? We seem to be being assaulted from all sides - algos,hedge funds etc. Perhaps its about time that we realised that the party is over; the music has stopped, the lights have been turned up and that amazing blonde you were in the process of pulling looks more like Shrek than Scarlett Johansson. I've had a great time and have got enough cash for a kebab and a cab home so count myself lucky. Good luck!
come on locals. no stories of anyone cleaning up. no stories of anyone adapting and making a fortune. no stories of any scalpers still competing with machines and winning for a tick. oh well back to my spread thats offside this morning again.
BCT - I'm feeling you........, they're playing the slow song, Robbie Williams' Angels, people are leaving, the queue at the kebab van is getting longer...It's been a good night.......See you all on the other side!
What a depressing thread.However I know how some posters feel,used to do over a million round trips myself a few years ago,things started to change,big losses,consecutive down months,living off savings - used to be known in the pits that if you survived the first year as a local you'd be a local forever,increase trading volume gradually,now experienced guys are decreasing size,sick of getting screwed over,paying everyone except themselves. I'll keep battling on though,it's got to change some time hasn't it?
its not a depressing thread its a realistic thread. and no it wont change. it will never be like it was before. it will never get easier only harder. the only thing we can do is trade a different style. i went through this when the arse fell out the of fx market back in 1996/1997. banks ,traders and brokers were decimated by the introduction of electronic matching. all the supposed decent traders could not make easy money anymore. the only way to trade it after that was to take a view. every position i would have was offside straight away but over a period of a few days would generally be right. i think the only tip i can give is this: down size. pick a stop and a decent profit take and stick with your view. if your right your right. if your wrong your wrong. but then your asking a whole new question. do i need to to pay £2500 a month to do that. probably not. you can do it yourself from home by putting up a small amount of money. hence why i think arcardes are finished.
Definitely the only way to make money now is to position take,don't get spoofed out by size and keep stops disciplined. If anyone is interested in who their losses are going to,this year's Trader Monthly Top 100 Earners should shed a bit of light,of the top 100 - 93 are hedge-fund portfolio managers,number 1 picking up $2 billion! The number of independent futures traders in the top 100 - NONE! This could explain who is doing all the size,who is running the algo-models and why all the small traders are like lambs to the slaughter,getting swept away one by one.
good friend of mine just took a risk management job with a big US bank who shall remain nameless. As part of his job he regularly talks to the prop traders there. He says they have a system which can tell them what part of a bid or offer is paper/algo order driven and what part is local. He says one of the traders was bragging that this is the software bankrupting the locals. Then my mate told informed the trader he had been a local prior to taking that job. Trader quickly shut up. Nice level playing field these days, eh.
When all the locals have been squeezed out, do people think that these algo's themselves will start struggling? If so, then hopefully some margin may re-appear. The arcade I am at seems already prepared to allow relatively senior traders to leave without too much fuss. Perhaps they are preparing for the downturn. Eldgo
The only way to outwit them is to be right,not over-trade so you're not stopping yourself out just because you can't afford to run them any more and be patient - I used to get really frustrated until I found out that algo-models were behind it,now I know what I'm up against I don't treat it like a battle of wits and gut-instinct but a cold,ruthless game - not taking it personally,which I'm sure is why so many fail.
I just heard that Atlas Futures down on Old Jewry Lane has gone under - sign of the times I guess and I'm sure there'll be more to follow...