BlueWaterSailor: trading journey and journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by BlueWaterSailor, Aug 21, 2019.

  1. Overnight

    Overnight

    I need to know how you hear these near sub-aural sound waves in your Logitech headphones. It is important.

     
    #101     Oct 17, 2019
  2. So there's this catch...

    How do I know whether I'm hearing what I'm supposed to be hearing if I don't know what I'm supposed to be hearing? :confused:

    (Game soundtrack. Computer-generated music AFAICT, lots of low end and drums, some ululation and other effect noises, "presence" audio, a couple of poor transitions. Gronk?)
     
    #102     Oct 17, 2019
  3. Overnight

    Overnight

    Good point, but I think you know what I am thinking. I think.

    And Gronk is retired now. What does he have to do with anything? LoL!
     
    #103     Oct 17, 2019
  4. Oddly, I've neglected telepathy for some reason. I know... bad, awful me.

    Who him? :D This is old, odd usage from various froups. "[Interrogative?]"
     
    #104     Oct 17, 2019
  5. Overnight

    Overnight

    Gronk from the Patriots? That is what I was thinking
     
    #105     Oct 17, 2019
  6. $131.00 ROKU 191115 -P120/-C235/+C150 $2.00

    Worked this out by myself while ROKU was crashing, and am (cautiously) jubilant about it. This turned my naked short call into a 5-point call spread, with a naked short put at 120. $799 credit on the short put, and now that short call is risk-defined. Whew!

    When this phase started - and I want to record this, because I want to preserve a snapshot of my mental state - I had what was essentially a naked short call left over from wrestling ROKU up from the preceding crash. When it spiked $20 or so, and I got out of the 140 short put, that short call was at about -$250, so I thought I'd give it some time to sell off - it just made sense that after a huge rise like that, it would.

    Instead, ROKU kept going for the moon - and watching that P&L go over $400, then over $500 and start reaching for $600, was really discouraging. Not because of the money, but because the feeling of "what do I do now?" that I had way back at the beginning of the whole ROKU saga came back. I thought that I had the management process - first throw a brake on the adverse price move, then start figuring out the broader overall strategy once things stabilize - down, but it turned out that something as simple as switching from a tested put to a tested call knocked me off the perch.

    To be fair, this was the first time I'd ever tried to manage a naked call (in a field that is itself a "first" to me and that I'm just now starting to adapt to.) Fortunately, ROKU was quite "kind" to me by taking its own sweet time dropping - reviewing the chart, it started the day at about 139 and took until 12:30 to drop below 125. That gave me a chance to stop ping-ponging back and forth among the endless choices in my brain, think about the possible outcomes of different strategies I might try, and cautiously settle on one that seemed likely to succeed.

    After looking at a few scenarios on the option chain and considering the strikes I wanted against ROKU's range over the past months, I found that I was reasonably satisfied with the solution I'd come up with: selling a naked put at a low enough strike that I'd be OK owning ROKU in that range - but would also pay enough that I'd be able to afford a long call one strike away from my short call and would still have enough credit left to decrease the max loss from that spread. I looked at a few variations and settled on one - only to watch the price start rising again and taking away the credit I'd been looking at (in the 2.50 range.) I tried chasing price for a minute, then simply gave that idea up - this trade was just too beneficial to miss - and grabbed what was going at the best price I could. Fortunately, ROKU had reversed again, and I was able to get in for a $200 overall credit.

    As soon as I did, I felt relief. That naked call had been bothering me, even more than I'd realized: whereas the worst case for a naked put would eventually result in me holding stock, the naked call would be a loss, pure and simple. Flipping it into a naked put and a call spread felt like an immediate, powerful win - and looking at the P&Ls moving with the price confirmed it. Even though I'd entered that spread with poor pricing (the long was more expensive than the short), that would be overcome with time if the price stayed within a reasonable (wide) range. The naked put would mature in time, and hopefully cover a multitude of sins... including the too-expensive long call and the max loss in the call spread.

    In the end, what felt really, really good was being able to figure this out for myself, without any help. THIS is what I really want out of trading... and I'm hungry for lots and lots more of it.

    I know the market can take money from me regardless of how much I know; I know that I'll take big hits from outliers in the future even with the best risk management. But I can't live my life worrying about randomness. What I want, what I'm burning for, are the skills for handling all the non-randomness I can. This - even if someone points out a critical flaw in what I've done, even if it turns out that I was a damn fool for doing it - was still a big step up, in the right direction; I have finally managed to build enough of a consistent mental framework to make my own decisions.

    "Look, Mom! My first driver's license!"
     
    #106     Oct 18, 2019
    .sigma, Lewlowned and Overnight like this.
  7. Overnight

    Overnight

    An interstellar moment. :)



    Tick-tock...It is only a matter of time before you'll figure it all out.
     
    #107     Oct 18, 2019
    BlueWaterSailor likes this.
  8. Thanks; I fervently hope so. I'm not used to feeling so stupid for so long... although I'm willing to keep paying that price for as long as necessary. This has been one hell of a voyage, with ALL sorts of discoveries.
     
    #108     Oct 18, 2019
  9. Nice. We just got an extreme tornado warning in our area; "take cover now, damage to roofs, windows, etc. very likely."

    If you folks don't hear from me, I'll be on the Yellow Brick Road.
     
    #109     Oct 18, 2019
  10. Overnight

    Overnight

    Stay safe.
     
    #110     Oct 18, 2019