Let me be the first to say that all of you are crazy...can't you see the market has to go down but is being manipulated?
I already said my secret sauce. Fundamentals = Dividend discount model which is dependent on equity risk premium. The VIX has stopped going down so room for stocks to go up.
Not even close. I would argue the opposite actually. Even Kass has turned from bullish to neutral. The proof is in all of the "holy fuck the world is ending" articles you keep showing us.
Very wise observation. I put it right up there with trading is about making money, not being right. Regarding the latter statement, we need to remember that the most bullish thing a market can do is go up. Why it goes up is of less interest to us as traders. I happen to think that there is a lot of evidence to support the view that this is a manipulated move, designed to allow the financial sector to reliquify through equity offerings. Still, they don't put an asterisk beside your account equity that you made it off a manipulated move.
Oh please. Everyone, and I mean everyone, is buying into the Jimmy Rogers 'equity indexes are going to soar in nominal terms because the reflation trick is going to work' theory, and when the reflation trick gets slammed by the malignant and persistent deflation train, there's going to be a ton of bagholders. Gold is also peaky. Crude? Forget it. You have no real purchasing power in the biggest economy in the world, and Chinese Officials dramatically lowering expectations as they see their production, exports AND imports plunge (and if you think China's bad, wait until you get a load of Japan). I can go and buy milk, corn, chicken, beef, bread, eggs, a new car, a vacation, a plane ticket, a house and land cheaper now than I could last year, in 2007, in 2006, in 2005, in 2004, etc., etc., and you'll be able to add gasoline (you already can to some degree) and natural gas to that list soon, along with gold and silver (diamonds and art are already deflation-battled). If Julian Robertson is correct in his main trade (shorting long end treasuries expecting rampant monetary inflation), then we will have a depression. What do you get when you have $1.77 per gallon milk and 18% interest rates on a 10 Year Treasury? A depression. Everyone with cash will save their asses off and money will literally run for 10 Year, 20 Year and 30 Year Treasuries.