Stock market price increases are fueled by monetary expansion, whether it is due to economic growth or Fed policy. Looking at the Fed’s petal-to-the-metal actions this year, the stock market probably has a lot more to go. Look at bond prices. Solid bond prices with a rising stock market or bonds being very responsive in a bullish way to most any market decline shows the Fed is still being very aggressive with monetary expansion. In my opinion, a blow off top is years away and will have its basis in Fed tightening in response to their fears of over speculation. For example, people tapping out their credit cards or home lines of credit to buy stocks. The dot com bubble may look like a footnote in history by the time this market cycle is complete! It is notable that much of the recent rise of the market has been concentrated in a few issues. This historically been a negative indicator for stock market prospects. Then there is the issue of negative demographics. On big up expansion days, one idea would be to reduce one’s time frame for a signal on a counter trend play.