Trying out some short term trading using weekly SPY options. Have had a tough time discovering a short term trading model that produces alpha and can successfully pass statistical validation. Maybe this model being tested live in this thread with some real money will finally work out.. or not.. the odds are minuscule and I have zero expectation of a successful outcome
Real money equity book start value is $1000 Will round amounts up/down to a full dollar for easier reporting Trade #1 - long signal Jul 19 - bought 10 cts of Jul24 Bull debit spread +299.5/-300 for $264 Result: Win, profit $236 Realized book: $1236 Trade #2 - short signal Jul 29 - bought 7 cts of Aug02 Bear debit spread +302.5/-302 for $200 Result: Win, profit $300 Realized book: $1536
Maybe you're right.. we'll see if it will crash into the ground.. or fly. It will be a fun ride anyhow
I just made a post in my thread 'trading is easy'.... nothing too fancy, just an example of what I do over the years.
Did spot an calculation error on trade #2 Profit for the trade is $150 (7 contracts * $50 intrinsic value) and realized book value then becomes $1386
Another swing trade completed yesterday. Trade #3 - long signal Aug 6 - bought 5 cts of Aug12 Bull debit spread +287/-288 for $321 Result: Win, profit $179 Realized book: $1565
It still smells like alpha. Trade #4 - short signal Aug 12 - bought 15 cts of Aug 16 Bear debit spread +290/-289.50 for $411 Result: Win, Profit of $339 Realized book: $1904
Have decided to move using credit spreads instead as commissions are eating into profit to much due to small trade size, at least as long as account equity remain tiny. OCC settlement is free so I will make a little extra on better exit price and avoid paying to close the position . This will give me an ~$50 additional per trade.