bln's playground (systematic OTM options)

Discussion in 'Journals' started by bln, Sep 15, 2018.

  1. bln

    bln

    I use this thread to track the trading progress of forward testing two experimental systematic models for swing trading SPY out of the money options.

    Forward testing will be with real money, $250 respectively $500.

    The first system have lower activity but higher returns, let's name is "SlowOTM" to keep it simple and different the two.

    Target a bullish move of ~5% in SPY and make on average 1 swing trade per month.
    On signal we will buy OTM call options that have a strike that is ~2.5% above SPY price and have ~15 market days until expiry.
    Will target a return of 5x-10x (500-1000%) per winning trade.
    Allocated start equity of forward test will be $250, will risk 10% of equity per trade.
    Contract size will double then equity doubles and will start with 1 contract.
    At equity >$500 we trade two contracts, at >$750 three contracts and so on.

    the second system have higher activity but lower returns per trade, we name it "FastOTM".

    Target a bullish move of 1.40% in SPY and make on average 4-6 swing trades per month.
    On signal we will buy a OTM call options that have a strike that is ~0.70% above SPY price and have ~10 market days until expiry.
    Will target a return of 2.5x-3x (150-200%) per winning trade.
    Allocated equity of forward test will be $500, will risk 10% of equity per trade.
    Contract size will double then equity doubles and will start with 1 contract.

    Both systems will trade until equity hits zero or at which point no more contacts can be bought anymore. System in question then failed the forward test.

    Test start on monday Sep 17