Blind leading the Blind.

Discussion in 'Trading' started by athlonmank8, Jan 24, 2008.

  1. That's all this market is. Truly sad thing.

    How come no one takes the time to learn how order-flow works? Helps a great deal in trading....

    Simple summary.

    ---Orderflow and charts allow you to place

    ----.....directional trades, determine tops & bottoms to use, expected distance of move, and when to enter. TREND IS KEY and so is MARKET DIRECTION.

    ---You then decide what instrument to use (futures, stocks, options, etc) that best fits your "strategy"

    ---Set risk defined and trail winners.

    ---Set a targeted exit and if it's hit get out and move onto the next.

    ---There's no "hope" or "gambles" in this game.

    FINALLY and the one most difficult to grasp....your OPINION does NOT matter.

    My hat off to any profitable discretionary're way ahead of the curve and have a talent that very few possess.
  2. csw2002


    Can you clarify how you use order flows for trading.

  3. never found order flow to be very useful in longer term trading, it is imho only usefull for short term trading.

  4. basically just big bigs or offers moving prices around. if you can determine that it is just one buyer driving the price of a stock up then you get short after he is done buying.

  5. depends how you qualify order flow.... order flow can also be considered support and resistance. i think the last major 'longer than a day trade' order flow trade i saw was SLM when they priced that massive offering. i forget then price of the offering but there was a MASSIVE bid at that freakin maxed out the displayable order size on NYSE since it could only show 99999 on the bid size. basically once that bid got sold it allowed you to get short for a pretty reliable trade since you knew if there was that much sell demand then it would probably move lower after the order was filled.

    another example for order flow trades on things longer than day trades are selling the stabilizing bids for IPOs after they get filled. i remember BX and VM as being some trades that worked out great to the short side on that reasoning.

    ...obviously it doesn't work every time but it does allow you a low risk entry and a high probability of success. it also helps if you can pick your spots and combine those order flow trades with other aspects of the trade...but i guess that is true with most really good trades.

    with was a very hot IPO that couldn't hold it's bid.

    with was an IPO initiated with a SELL at a boutique firm on it's second day of trading. you almost NEVER see that.
  6. Surdo


    You run ahead of it.
    Your buddy calls you up he has size to buy in a midcap illiquid piece of crap, so you say thanks and get long 10K shares quietly.

    You pay him back by giving him a layup in 100K share order in QQQQ and he buys you dinner!

    Even a squirrell gets a nut some times, it makes me wonder, why I keep from goin' under...........don't push me, 'cause I'm close to the edge, I'm try'n not to lose my head.
  7. Exactly. A poster above mentioned support and resistance. That's key.

    Now you must determine when there will be an imbalance (and broken, etc) and trade in that direction. Order flow will usually follow and move in the desired direction until new S&R is met. The idea on the trade is to

    1. Either profit until the new S&R is met

    2. Counter-trend and profit from a "potential" reversal.

    Get the idea? How firm S&R is could depend upon several factors...esp. uptrend, and a combo of S&R, overall market, sector, etc.

  8. Robbie, have you personally ever shorted an IPO in its first week of trading? Do you know of anyone who has?
  9. yeah i do it all the time. we get shares all the time at our office. it's nothin special.
  10. Notice how absolutely no one disagreed with you on this comment?
    All the information you need is alwlays in the charts.

    There are a hundred guys here who read them in a different way and still end up making money.

    Just find your way.

    Good trading
    #10     Jan 25, 2008