Running a martingale is tougher at black jack when you have to split and double down. Then if you lose a couple of those in a row, it really hurts...
I googled horse racing betting systems. Most of them are quite elaborate and based on statistical analysis. I think this guy Don Johnson is very smart. Started playing BJ some 15 years ago, established trust with the NJ casino's, was a 'known' customer and high roller to them. thus the 20% give back on losses and 100k bet size. I believe he came up with some edge and systematically exploited it to extract his large winnings from these casino's. Martingale is a silly idea someone here came up with, if it were this simple MIT team would have used it years ago. He, I believe 'waits' for some event then bets big....
What makes you think that? How would it be +EV for a profitable corporation to assassinate a winning customer, that's the most ridiculous idea I ever heard.
That was the point of the question AAA raised. One presumes that the casinos have much more knowledge about this than all of us put together. There is no question that if they offered this 20 point deal, then it generally was a good idea and made them money somehow. Perhaps not in this particular case, but overall. I mean, casinos that do really dumb things go broke. Which makes some of us (those who like to think about things like odds, money, business, finance and statistics) wonder just how that works.
The key to backing up the line bet is picking a casino that will allow you to back it up massively. At one time -- and maybe today as well -- there were casinos in Vegas that would allow you to come out with X and then back it up with 10X. Those deals were not available on the strip which is why many locals preferred downtown casinos. The Lady Luck was a 10X house. Obviously when you are paying vig on your first bet and none on your backup, the larger the backup is in proportion to the come out the lower the house edge is. Yet as Wayne correctly points out it is still their edge ... not yours.
Because they are in the PROBABILITY business. A lucky costumer as long as SKILL is not involved is expected from time to time and a good advertisement for the costumers. Black jack is actually (or can be for the experienced) a game of skill, instead of luck. When a costumer gets smart and can change the odds to his advantage, that is an uncalculated LOSS (do I really have to explain this?) for the business, and really bad in the long run. So they banned his ass. You know what happened to Livermore when he was banned from the bucketshop (perfect analogy, he changed the odds to his favor using techinal analysis/skill) He started to use proxys. Mr. Johnson could back others using his strategy and take down more casinos, or he could write a book or sell seminars. "Dead winning costumers win no more and don't teach their skill to others." Tony Soprano What is cheaper for the casino industry, ordering a hit on Johnson for 100K, or risking him making more big money out of them??
Maybe he has already taught someone, another high roller hits Tropicana: http://www.blackjackchamp.com/casin...ins-5-3m-at-tropicana-casino-craps-blackjack/ June 7th, by Nick Meisher "Because of fate, luck or a cosmic design a second whale beached himself in Tropicana Casino and harpooned the already hemorrhaging casino for $5,300,000. According to Donald Wittkowski of Press of Atlantic City, the unidentified high roller had a six hour long heater during which he was beating Tropicana craps, blackjack card games and mini-baccarat at stakes of $100,000 per craps shoot or card games. The majority of the money was won at craps, with blackjack and baccarat not far behind. Tropicana does not disclose the name of the new big winner, citing company policy. The casino did confirm it was definitely not Don Johnson returning for seconds. Tropicana considers high-stakes gambling to be the crown jewel of its overall strategy, which started showing promise for a few months until the two almost consecutive wins. Tropicanaâs new CEO, who was in the casino business for over 30 years, has never heard of two wins of this magnitude so close in time at the same casino."
Hitting this guy would do nothing to decrease the amount of blackjack knowledge outstanding. There are plenty of skilled and experienced players out there. On the flip side, willingness to take big table game losses, especially at baccarat and craps, is a hallmark of a well run casino. Casinos that won't take that action are stupid or poorly capitalized or both.
These guys are businessmen running sophisticated public companies not racket guys. The risk reward ratio calculation involved in ordering a "hit" is, I suspect, totally off the charts ... their charts. Assuming you were earning well into the seven figures would you want to be involved in killing someone just because they figured out a way to pick your pocket?