Can you point me in the direction of where you stated that before please? I'd like to read that.... Thanks, The New Guy
But isn't it true that everytime a succesful player starts winning big he is kicked out of the game ?
Well, this successful player just went to $0. I'm gonna go lay down and put some ice on my back.... Later, guyz. sKaLpZ
What?! You sat through a near 50% drawdown in 1 trade? I'm assuming that's your virtual account again.
Great BJ site... very interesting! If that is your first days results.... consider yourself a WINNER!! Practice & Patients is what you really need! Make it so that your loses don't hurt!... like getting a parking ticket, so-to-speak!
From an statistical perspective you are correct but, if you have flipped a coin 99 times and it has landed tails, chances that it will land tails again are easily 99% since it would become obvious that the coin is not equal weighted..... The trick is to find out exactly what your max possible drawdown is in any system and be able to survive it regardless of market conditions.... And what Skalpz says is the only answer. You have to change or adjust your system as the markets indicate. To beat the markets in the long run is very possible only if you can "think out of the box"....all day.
Well, Traderjmb is right about making your losses equivalent to mere parking tickets. To clarify and expound a tad on the BJ system versus a successful trading system... BJ is different in that, you are trading near blind. At least with trading the markets (the forex for me) you've got a chart and some fundamental eco numbers. I can destroy a market move against me of 10-cents (1000-pts) by executing a few simple manuevers plus make money and come out a winner when the trade is closed - done it lots of times. With this BJ though.... hm... the dealer seems to be ruthless (meaner than me). It will win, like, with 19s, 20s and 21s, 10-times in a row! And when I try to win it has countered me with a tie in numbers ("push"). Hence, it seems I've only been able to win 3 or 4 times average out of 10 MAX. Now... I can and have equalized those factors to some degree by hitting back with large trade/play sizes. The most I have done though is kind of just float in a tangling/wrangling environment - very taxing on the emotions to keep my equipoise. The best I've done is increase my account by leaps and bounds when those high-sum plays have resulted in wins for me, either by me out-numbering the dealer's hand or by the dealer blowing up. It is the "sinking boat" syndrome of playing 100s of hands just to increase your account by a mere $1,000 or reduce it by $1,000 that is the bitch. And once I have gotten some money ahead it is, like, I really have to watch it because the dealer has somehow been able to just win 5 or 10 times straight every hand again - wiping out a significant part of my earnings. I am at zero now, but have been there a few times this week in my demo accounts. That is to be anticipated anytime you are testing new systems. It is almost like testing new pick-up lines on chicks you hit on. You expect to be rejected a certain amount of the time - but when a tester line works there is always the human female vaginal canal awaiting that you can insert certain parts of your anatomy into...... (am I sounding too technical here...?) I reached over $20,000 at one point but could not seem to win a single hand of any substantial value for quite a few hands dealt, after that. Once I got under $9,000, the distance to $0 was much closer.
my basic betting system is this: any denomination up to $100. $100. $200. $400. $500. $1,000 (max on Yahoo). I keep changing the sizes based on a number of factors (that have seemed to keep changing a well from the dealer's point of view against me). so far I been breaking even this session. I see myself as having a $100,000 acct, so that, if I go to zero and keep playing, I still have money. hence, $1,000 represents 1% of a trading account. standard. in real life tho, with this amount of losses, I would not be playing into my own $100,000 like I am. I'd reach a limit loss and walk.