I hope so! So much to make on the way down, and that much more to recoup when it goes back up. Japan a borderline third world shithole? Measured against what? If China and India are to realize their economic aspirations, then 300% is nothing compared to where gold will be in the next 25 years. Also, I recently installed a toilet made of gold, which probably accounts for about 1/3 of the recent gains. Wouldn't recommend it, though. Can no longer take a shit without armed bandits interrupting.
the market will downtrend till the 4th quarter. Its running out of options given the current climate. No reason to be in equities. The fed needs to start cutting rates, and they wont till more evidence that the economy is in a recession.
usdjpy is a barometer of the world economy.. since its export dependent and apt for manipulation. As world economies takeoff the pair takes off secondary to competition.
Excuse the language, but no f*cking way. Tech bubble bought down a lot of quality companies last time. Market rising since the bubble has been based on solid fundamentals.
here is the near term target.. once recession fear start gripping this trendline is apt to be busted.
there needs to be a bull here. why don't you rechart that indexed to inflation, US dollar strength, and PEG rates. Its a useless chart, because you'd clearly see the markets have gone nowhere for nearly a century, and only recently (last 4 yrs or so) earnings growth is at historic all time highs, pushed on by forces of globalization. The markets produce 4 times or so the earnings they did in 2000, and are priced LESS than before. The distaste for stocks still permeates equity markets (which explains this bearishness), and do you honestly think it'll continue, considering how housing prices will not perform in the next few years? Where will the cash go ... Of course a correction to 1325-1350 is all over the charts, but are fundamentals worth anything here? Factor in dollar weakness, earnings growth (which is AMAZING compared to history), relatively low PEs, etc. and this is nothing but a buying opportunity. shorts here having an orgyfest over 30-40 pts on the ES are kidding themselves if they'll get anymore. Trendlines to 1000? dumb amateur analysis. remember, liquidity is still enormous and will remain, especially if the fed saw recession signal ... like I said before, $80-100 oil and massive job losses are the short term exit signal, since the consumer (which is extremely strong) will hurt in the short term. This is purely technical and anyone who's talking recession here is clearly watching too much CNBC. By the way, this 'correction' is occuring too quickly to stick. If it is a liquidation, just as everyone is purporting (and I am too), in connection with JPY carry trade, I'm absolutely convinced these markets are going to the moon after the fear is pressed out. Why? Look at oil. Same thing: technical liquidation and retest PAST old technical levels. Fundamentals drive us to or away the near term moving averages, and fundies are solid on oil, giving support. Same holds true with the cheap equities, which will move us above the MAs. It took ES 60 days to sell off 100 pts last correction, on much more substantial inflation fears (pressed on by worries screaming oil would kill earnings growth, and more importantly FOMC rate change direction adjustment / Bernanke fear). Since it wasn't an unwinding, it took longer to recover. Peak to recovery was 4-5 months last correction. For this reason, I am suggesting the same funds that are driving this down are going to drive it up JUST AS QUICKLY. My bold call: we test 1350-1360 by Monday or tuesday (since I do agree Friday was technically week), and are back up to 1440-1460 by April 1. More importantly, we're back up to 1410-1420 by middle the following week. remember, besides a few losers on JPY, there will be very little liquidity shrinkage from this selloff. This cash will have to go somewhere. And since it sounds like everyone wise here is sitting on cash, you know what that means. S&P at 1600 by end of year. I'm not joking. Subprime is already hurting prime stocks, so its being priced in. Even recession is being priced into a correction. What happens when its not as bad as people expect? Look at homebuilders end of year (which was a premature rally; I was short the wrong side) 2006 for an example.
sp500 is already off 80 points from its highs.. based on last few minutes of trading at the CME. its cyclical average is 30 point oscillations, the 'market stop loss ' was hit. Its next larger cyclical average is 100 points, which occurred last year during the Israeli/Lebanon War. A 100 point cyclical intermediate term average puts it at 1364. If 1364 market stop loss doesnt hold then it aims for the longterm trendline. the psychology of the world impinging on the markets can be devastating. A asian storm, is implied if recession prospects gain a foothold. Subconsciously thats what the market wants, it wants to get it out of the way. Asia cant prosper, unless moneyflows get recycled in their own region. A transfer of wealth has been happening. And when the wealth transfer slows down, it doesnt bode well for the pacific rim. The speculative devastation in the region, can persist longer in the region secondary to a cultural psychology of being extremely conservative.
Asia is NOT unwinding. 10% GDP growth is amazing, and deserves to be priced into the market. I'll worry when it starts hitting US #s. But likely you'll see a PE contraction before that happens. JPY carry trade unwind is big... but when thats done, where does money get repositioned? There's no change of attitude, except that retail (you) is watching too much pop news media. In two weeks that'll be out of vogue - notice you aren't seeing tons of threads on ET calling to short oil right now down to 40? Why not? because fundamentals kicked in, and the liquidation frenzy temporarily detached. We'll be back to $70 oil even without Iran (hurricane worries will easily do it); and what are you left with? A faulty bear case ... It takes real fundamentals to keep a market down, and there are none (yet). A slow Jan is already offset by great Feb #s ... so even if the markets broke a 100 pt aberration, they are going to come back just as quickly as they sold unless something substantially changes. And by that, you need something bigger than subprime, greenspan talking recession up, etc.