Black Week (Mar 5 - 9)

Discussion in 'Trading' started by mg_mg, Mar 2, 2007.

  1. mg_mg


    Speaking of weekly scale, SP and DJ are posing to go much lower next week. Either a black monday or an up pop move in at most daily scale, but markets will reverse back to down.
  2. lwlee


    Last Jun/July correction, Dow lost 9% and SP lost 8%. If you figure similar drops, Dow would go to 11686 and SP to 1346. Friday close had Dow at 12114 and SP at 1387.

    I think at most a 10% correction and then it's time for some buying.
  3. Depends on job data.

    If it's bad next week, add it to the case for recessionary pressures building.

    Then we could go much lower.

    This is like a series of aftershocks, with liquidity, lending, manufacturing, slowing growth, a new round of wall street scandals, emerging market turmoil...

    We are at the point where one piece of data could break the camel's back.
  4. Market bottoms at 1366 on the S&P.
    People looking for the 10% correction will be disappointed, and WRONG.

    Liquidity is not an issue.
    Money is generous and the FED is on hold.
    Hard to start a recession when their isn't a credit crunch with rates.
  5. Wall Street wants a much larger correction. I honestly believe that.

    Institutions want to wash and rinse retail investors, bust them out of their positions, and repurchase shares at much lower prices. Private equity would love this, as well.

    It's actually quite rational, from their perspective.
  7. lwlee


    Technically, the sp charts don't show any support at these levels. 1400 should have been held if bullish sentiments were still alive. But lower than 10%, with current fundamental outlook, doesn't seem realistic.

    There was a double bottom last July. This time, we could lose some more attitude and stay around these levels for a while.
  8. gimp570


    So you think future will be way down monday...

    I am sure that NEW news is gonna hurt the market

    might be the tip of the iceberg
  9. <i>"Market bottoms at 1366 on the S&P. People looking for the 10% correction will be disappointed, and WRONG."</i>

    Long ago I firsthand learned that "support" is a relative term. Easy to see in bull markets... mere speed bumps when the tide turns south.

    From the July 2006 lows to Feb 2007 highs, SPX closed Friday nearly to the exact tick on initial long-term support.

    Next stop may be 250-day moving average (olive) currently near 1375

    Next magnet lower would be 1360 and last line in the sand 1335 to hold the bullish bias.

    I would expect to see any of the lower levels hit this week, and initial bounce attempts to follow. If they close below 1330 cash on a weekly basis, that would be another story altogether.
  10. all must udnerstand we've had several huge bounce attempts so its not like we went straight down. they've already forced tons of short covering with waves on huge bounces. since at least 3-5 huge bounces have failed we could enter a watershed decline here as all either still very bullish short and long term or everyone looking for a bounce. just reverse your thinking to how the bears searched for a top for 6 months. put the shoe on the other foot now. do you really believe they're going to let 300 billion in margined postions and trillions of 100-1 leveraged deriviatives escape untouched?
    #10     Mar 3, 2007