Black Week ended!! Monday - Red or Green

Discussion in 'Trading' started by stocktrader2007, Jul 27, 2007.

  1. We are in the weekend after a massive Fall in all indexes all around the world.

    Bye Bye Black Friday.

    Now lets see whats on Monday.. As it always works in stock markets all around.. when there is a huge fall there is a recovery.

    After the break, on monday, stocks are going to ramp up...

    People are discussing on buying the dips.. Due to buy its going to increase the volume and price of stocks..

    Note this one.. Its going to be happy monday in US markets!!

  2. Greed, greed, greed. And where do you think greed leads?
  3. Obviously, to the edge of the vortex. The questions one must ask are:

    1. Is this a vortex or a black hole?

    2. Do I participate?

    3. What direction is the vortex spinning?

    4. Where/when do I enter?

    5. Where /when do I exit?

    6. How do I protect myself?

    7. If I were the largest, most powerful fund in the world, what would I do to extract the most cash short/long term?
  4. xiaodre


    man, I think the thing to do would be to wait until 3am on monday. Then check china, and europe indexes. Then, around 5am when the volume starts really picking up here in america, check the indexes here, and also key stocks in possibly some different sectors (financials, tech, biotech, manufacturing). Then, keep watching and at 530am when the stock markets open here, see if there are clear buy or sell signals on some high timeframes, drill down and get buy and sell signals on lower timeframes until I get to the timeframe I make my trading decisions on. Then I'll look for one or the other signal there...

    I think you're right though. there are going to be plenty of opportunities to trade on monday no matter where we head.
  5. 3am, 5am, 530am - when I am supposed to sleep? :confused:
  6. [​IMG]
  7. Monday futures will probably be up big but it needs to fall further. Market is still inflated IMHO.

    As mostly a bear, i hope this was just the start of the global market correction but that proved to be wrong late Feb., early March. The further we fall from 14k DOW the better. I'd like to get out of the 13k range sooner than later.

    Those last two days looked big point wise but % it was nothing.
  8. xiaodre


    Ah, well, you know. Alaska time really sucks for trading, but people who live here don't sleep much in the summertime...

  9. tell me how the market is inflated?


    1) in real terms, against the euro, the s&p is only up 10% over the last 2 yrs, all amidst a great growth boom in china. In real terms, thats 5% growth per year. Against other currencies (commodity ones) ie the AUD, the S&P is actually barely up.

    2) PE ratios are in the 15 range, right in line with treasuries + risk premium. Furthering this point, even after all this mess, goldman sachs debt (high quality debt) goes for 5.70% or so [on the long end]; they have an earnings yield over 10%. Just by buying back stock GS is making 4% profit.

    3) Remember last month when treasury yields were going to the sky as a result of all that subprime mortgageback hedging (convexity hedging) ? Where are treasury yields now? Pretty much back to where they were before the dumping. What makes you think the credit markets -overpricing- of risk (especially in subprime) won't bounce back and give further support to the market? Its not like we have defaults. We don't. Research it.

    The bull case is strong. The reality is that this flushing of bulls and repricing of risk is exactly what we need for the next round of momentum to break 1550 and go to 1600 in S&P. The next buying round is going to resemble a blowoff top. Remember after last February how we blew right thru 1460 ...

    Now we're refueling.
    #10     Jul 28, 2007