Black Tuesday (1st May, 2007)

Discussion in 'Trading' started by palenimbus, Apr 30, 2007.

  1. Enough that HB's are trading off their lows and CTX is up quite a bit today after delivering TERRIBLE earnings and saying they're sitting on cash from a bunch of their business divisions they sold because the market is shaky...so they're acting as a bank and didn't provide guidance, yet the market sees that as a buying opp.

    I would say that's about the density of the bulls at this point. :D
     
    #51     May 1, 2007
  2. A public service reminder to fade ALL calls on ET. :(
     
    #52     May 1, 2007
  3. these kind of people are liquidity providers.

    they are exactly the reason why i can make a living in the futures

    cause ignoramuses will trade their opinions, try to constantly short the tops (in a bull market) and engage their idiocy on a daily basis.
     
    #53     May 1, 2007
  4. good time 2 buy is now

    blah blah
     
    #54     May 1, 2007
  5. Wouldn't shorting tops be a good thing? Or is it good to lose money in your land?

    ...and "cause" isn't the word you're looking for 3rd grade.
     
    #55     May 1, 2007
  6. a bull market can only have one final top

    it can have (and has had) dozens of pullbacks

    my point isn't that you can't strategically scalp off of exhaustion highs

    but that it's stupid, low expectancy, and poor strategy to try to predict the top, or a 800 pt drop!! :)

    that's not trading.

    not intelligent trading

    whatever.

    the idiots will continue to provide liquidity

    that's why they exist
     
    #56     May 1, 2007
  7. good points
     
    #57     May 1, 2007
  8. thx.

    fwiw, the most cost effective and least risky way to short the index in general (apart from index futures which i scalp long and short intraday) is bear spreads.

    especially when the VIX gets down low, the premium gets pretty cheap, and the spreads offer a cost effective way of getting some short exposure
     
    #58     May 1, 2007
  9. only problem with the bear spreads is they have to go pretty deep in the money to pay off (or you have to go close to expiry).

    not good for shorting a few points.
     
    #59     May 1, 2007
  10. i've found bear spreads very effective when held for about a week, based on a # of factors I look at.

    They've offered tidy little returns every single time I bought them (n=6).

    In essence, you have to wait for complete euphoria to kick in, then they get reasonably priced.
     
    #60     May 1, 2007