http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/searchPageBuilder.jsp?z=1177977522718&grpID=4409# -75 offered @ $1.5 ($10 scale) . Tomorrow AM you should see some beef in the ask size. Of course by that time, I'm sure the stock exchanges will have melted...
Anything can happen but this seems to me to be highly unlikely. Look at the historical crashes (29, 87 come to mind) and the big down days come after multi-day lower highs. I think this LH LL situation creates an environment where over the course of the day everyone who's got an eye on the market picks up on the failure - so you get a cascade of joiners and capitulators. Even the late feb event was preceded by a day which broke the prior days highs presumably gaining some longs to fail the next day. On the other hand I could be wrong: when was a really big move on the dow not part of a Lower High situation?
Don't jinx a possible starting bear trend! God damn it! Now the DOW is guaranteed to go higher or break new highs. God an 800 point drop would kick ass. I called a top at 12,500 and am stuck with a shitload of DXD. I suck at picking tops!!!!!!! Dude, I will be happy with it under 13k again and hopefully never see that number again. Man, I blame bluestreak...lol Btw, buying the DXD's is seriously not a bad move at these levels...QID for that matter too to hedge. But I'm just a bear!