Come on Cache, you didn't get the memo that there are no more business cycles. Stock has gone on record with all his wit and wisdom that the past is done with. The "smarties" (whoever the fuck they are) will not let there be not a another bear mkt, but no more corrections either! Web 2.0, which apparently only consist of GOOG and Facebook, will be the leaders into the 22nd century. So everyday is a great 2 buy, I'm totally "serial" about this!!!!
WOW. I'm talking about business cycles analyzed throughout the last century and your talking about analysis of the past 14 months?
I know. I know. I really shouldn't care at all about this, but these guys are the reason for market crashes. It's always "different this time". It was "different" during the tech bubble too. The days of bear markets were over. Tell that to all the people who are just about to be 1/2 way back to what they lost in 2000. Large Cap tech stocks were supposed to be the best investment back then too. GOOG is an anomaly. They are experiencing the growth that any company sees when they revolutionize the sector. They completely changed the ad space but even if they keep growing, it won't prevent a bear market. They are as natural and certain as death.
It is easy to draw comparions to now and any previous period of time. However, there is no comparision between the rally we've seen since 2002 and the 2000 bubble. Bubbles pop when valautions become overtly excessive and people begin taking profits usually with a single piece of bad news being the trigger. This this isn't the case now. Kudlow is right about goldilocks economy. Perfect ballance of growth, valautions, and inflation.
I'm not claiming we are crashing right now. I'm claiming we are in the late stages of a bull market. The final stage is defined by one last parabolic move higher in the large caps while small caps stagnate. My comments were only in regards to the reason that large cap is outperforming small cap. I haven't seen that last parabolic move yet. But every other factor says we are in the final stages. Just waiting for the euphoria that you have to become more common amongst the smart money. That will signal the end. Doesn't mean there will be a 2000-2001 crash, but 1965-1983 wasn't that great either. In any case I don't really care because my trades are usually 3-20minutes in length. The largest hit I'll take from a crash is 2-5%. But position traders will be hurting. Whether we crash or stagnate doesn't matter. Either scenario is just as bad for them. Either way they lose money.
Was looking for a full house on the river, but was left with two pairs. So, I am flat ES, with a P&L of about zero for the day.