CFTC cot shows a HUGE net short interest on russell vs the other indexes. Thats the fashionable spread trade. Short russell, long nasdaq. I guess the big players feel this is the easiest way to broadly short the housing/mortgage game, or at least hedge their small cap positions. when er2 comes back, its going to be beautiful... It just might be from much lower levels.
Weak RUT strong NDX is the typical late stage bull market scenario. Money leaves small caps first in a weakening market and large cap techs last. The selloff won't happen for real until large cap techs selloff and the Yen carry unwinds.
Find a company with a buyback going on, and a segment spinoff a-la EMC-VMWare wouldn't be bad either. CPWR comes to mind.
Not every few years, but there've been many bull/bear markets over the last century. My post was pretty much conventional market wisdom and common knowledge as far as I'm aware.
my point: how many bull markets have we actually had end with 'large cap techs selloff' by definition besides the last one? Before this last bull ended, large cap tech was not such a meaningful component in the market.
Cache makes a true point. In the go-go 60's markets (that always resulted in 30% selloffs) there were stocks like IBM, Polaroid, Texas Instruments, EDS ect. that outpaced the list in the last stages only to top and take the weak sisters back to the lows. Anyone who thinks that the future of equity valuations is predicated upon music players, text messengers, search engines and ugly plastic shoes will be rudely reawakened. Just my depreciating 2 cents.....