"What we call here a Black Swan is an event with the following three attributes "First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable." - Nicholas Nassim Taleb I thought I would start this thread to discuss the concepts that Taleb addresses in his new book. The premise is simple, buy way out of the money options looking for homeruns. Personally I like the ideal of 100:1 risk to return trading because I can get 95 trades wrong and 1 right and still make money. So let's begin this discussion. btw, I'm off to the book store today to get the book and I will be reading it this week.