Discussion in 'Options' started by dcwriter2, Jan 19, 2021.
Anyone have any? Instrument? Underlying? OTM distance? Time? Size?
Deep buy super OTM puts that misprice IV. If you spend 5k per month on this trade, most months you will lose money, but some months you'll make 10x.
At the end of the year, your capital cost (say 60k) vs. your total gain (50k as in the example) balance out. So it's not enough to just find good tail risk. You need to find assets that are systematically underpricing risk.
Black Swan events are only Black Swan events after the big move.
You cannot trade them in advance.
I've toyed around with the idea of hedging for a black swan event buy doing back spreads and collecting a small credit. No black swan you keep the credit. Black swan and your long options give you room to run. Issue is to get the credit you widen the strikes so much it eats up your buying power and at that point why not just buy a shit ton of 1 cent puts on the spy. If you figure it out let me know. Cheep to do butterflies down there but you have to get the range right. I suppose you could always start it as a fly and take off the short guts at a penny and leave the long wings in case of a black swan but you'd have to be timing it right. No free lunch.
You should wait for the time to come and then trade black swans. Can’t do it beforehand.
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