I wouldn't be too afraid of the SKEW. Investors and traders tend to freak out the most when it's only a big correction. Notice how the SKEW ratio actually isn't that high during the 2000-2002 and 2007-2009 bear markets. http://investingtrack.com/the-sp-500-will-face-massive-resistance-at-its-200-sma/
Perhaps, but the thing the longs always have in their favor is that when VIX is up over 30, the market starts zig-zagging, gapping up 20-30 ES points, etc...they get multiple mulligan's and if they are smart, they take them...OTOH, when you get stuck short in these markets, the VIX drops into the teens and the ranges contract and it becomes like water torture...
Did you buy some? Nope. Did everyone buy out of money puts ? Of course not. So it will happen. Some smarts players patiently wait for the crash and they don't want that everyone knows it. Same story with subprimes. CM
I couldn't have said it better myself...you are a 1000% right, when the VIX gets to 25+ 30, 35+ 45+ 50++++ its a givien that A 10000000% of the time it's going to come straight back down and that if you get long stocks you are going to make money....the VIX might stay above 30 for a week or 2 if you are very lucky...but damn when the VIX is falling and under 17, 16, 15, 14, 13, 12, 11 its like a never ending drop that takes months or years to complete in some cases. As you can see just as the VIX has gotten under 20 and recently 17 the markets have just gone from zig zagging to complete blahhhhh....I still predict a skyrocketing VIX to 50+
like most forecasters you do nor provide an end date. therefore you are on well on your way to becoming a market pundit. with your writing skills, you might be able to start a very profitable investment newsletter. you might receive an income larger than trading income.
Alright folks, here is my speculation on the next black swan. A dirty bomb goes off in Damascus, Syria, wiping it off the face of the earth.