I'm working on a theory that a market Black Swan Event can be defined by a 50% increase in the ET Thread/Post count during the event: If Mondays ET activity (new threads and posts) was 50% higher than the average daily activity during the last week then we indeed went through a Black Swan Event. I'm wondering if Baron could confirm Mondays (August 24) ET activity - was there a 50% increase? Thanks
Seriously you could model so many of these things (site usage, visits, news ratings, etc) on VIX or something similar...
Let's see if there is a 30% drop in posts today...From what I can tell it's more than that...Very little activity compared to yesterday.
OK ..... Thanks Baron for posting the chart. ET activity did increase by 50%+ on Monday, with normal activity the preceding 6 days. IMO ...... Market activity on Monday August 24, 2015 was indeed a Black Swan Event, otherwise there would have been a gradual increase in ET activity leading up to the big event.
I agree. If you look hard enough...you can find patterns, or coincidences, across basically anything in life. ...I find it kind of annoying that there's a term, or a new term being coined, to describe each one.