THE ARREST OF "TERRORIST" IN NJ WITH THE PLAN ATTACK ON FORT BLISS WAS ANOTHER BLACK SWAN GETTING AWAY. FIRST IN SAUDI WITH THE PLAN ATTACK ON OIL FIELDS AND NOW WITH IN THE USA. ODDS ARE, ONE OF THESE BLACKS SWANS WILL STAY STILL LONG ENOUGH TO BE SEEN AND WHEN THIS EVENT HAPPENS, WILL THE PSYCHOLOGY OF THE "INVESTORS" STAND STRONG?
There was a rumor they were also going to kidnap Cramer. They were going to demand $10,000,000 to NOT return him. Would be worth every penny...
First of all the fact that you are calling this a Black Swan Event shows your lack of understanding of Black Swan Events. Also the fact that the plan was thwarted also demonstrates that terrorist events are no longer classified as "Black Swans". terrorist events have been priced into the markets already. Do you think that there will be a terrorist event bigger than the consequences of Katrina? Believe me, future terrorist events are expected and probably will happen making them not qualifiable as Black Swan Events. Try looking into the theory a little before jacking up an irrelevant thread.
I have often heard proponents of the efficient market hypothesis make rediculous claims but this is the first time that I've heard one of them make the claim that an event that is unknown in size, unknown in occurence and unknown in consequence is already priced in. I'd say this is a mile stone. Coming from a trader I presume that EMH has left the realms of book blind intellectuals and entered the realm of those who selectivly ignore risk.