lol this is not a "black swan". this is a pretty widely known and somewhat expected event. a "black swan" would be iran retaliating with nukes that no one knew they had and destroying israel. i don't think anyone would be expecting that. another good black swan would be jp morgan going under if there are a wave of major bankruptcies (LEH, MER, C, so on) due to them being the biggest writer in the credit swap market. they pretty much have the implicit backing of the fed after their bsc deal but this would be much much bigger than the fed could handle.