Most likely scenario. This being an option ex. week Monday morning likely to be scary enough to start a stampede of put buying. Then once the big boys come back from lunch it's show time. Perfect bear trap. Black Monday,,doubtful. More likely to be up 250 plus. That's my gut, I hope for my bear friends I'm wrong, but then the bulls will be dancing. So goes the Market ...Rennick
I think the market will remain weak at least until Wednesday, when CPI is released. We should see a rally if CPI is lower-than-expected. The market is down on inflation fears - and, conveniently enough, an inflation report is just around the corner. If CPI is stronger-than-expected, the market should sell off, but it could rally if there are sharp declines on Monday and Tuesday (sell on the rumor, buy on the news). Of course, there's also PPI on Tuesday, but I think it's really the CPI report that people want to see before concluding that inflation fears are confirmed or overblown.
^true enough, right now it is inflation that's on everyones mind...those numbers will dictate direction for da forthcomin' weeks.
Nice theory, let's see how it turns out. Just want to add that the reason for low bond yields is the same as for high share & real estate prices: too much money. Just as there's a housing bubble, there is also a stock bubble, bond bubble and a bubble even in some commodities. Instead of showing up in the CPI, the extra money has gone to asset prices. The solution (by helicopter-Ben) will be a bear market in assets and a bull market in wages and non-asset prices.
No prediction needed. The key is what happens monday in Asia. In every crash, positive feedback and extreme correlation is seen. If Hong Kong and Nikkei or Kospi crashes big, then we definitely is going see something happening and all these markets don't look too good to me. I guess the MUCH more important question is how to profit from it. Any suggestions?? I think buying eurodollar is a pretty good hedge, the volatiliy is has been VERY LOW recently, so it's a good risk/reward trade.
any of u guys think this sell-off might has something to do with the fact that thursday KARL ROVE told the WHITE HOUSE that he will be charged in the CIA leak scandal and if that happens then the current administration will be in a very tight spot..plus there will be more NSA wire tapping testimonies in front of congress next week as well..i say the market smells some big politically coming around the corner..my 2cents
I was just reading today about the saudi stock market ... heck their market has dropped 50 % in about 3 months after a huge multi yr rally ( the chart looked like bubble nasdaq yrs ) however the only thing I can understand on their website is the chart ... why people did not get out as their market dropped so fast and hard is something I cannot answer ... seems like alot of people got crushed there