my top ten "words to be used the most over the weekend on ET" , no particular order : 1. Monday 2. Bears 3. Taleb 4. Black 5. VIX 6. Sigmas 7. PPT 8. Longs 9. FED 10. Margins
"Black Monday " ... You people are insane ... It hasn't even hit a 1.5 month low. It bounces around between 1285 and 1305 for the next week and drifts down to 1220-1250 over the summer, then roars back in tha fall ... unless armageddon... Always have to make room for possible armageddon
If we go below 1240, we might see a crash but not right now. If one was to look at the weekly or monthly change in prices, then this market is still in a Bull phase. We might see S&P around 1240-1260 in few weeks but that still doesn't make it a bear market. After we get to 1240, there are two possible scenarios. 1) The market cannot support 1240 and we enter a bear market. 2) The market bounces off at 1240 but in the next few months, it cannot break past 1330. Then the sell-off that we'll get is going to be severe. If we get a bounce at 1240, I'll look to buy. Right now for retail traders with limited capital the best strategy is to short on a 3 day high but if you're long it is probably best to just liquidate at the market. If someone was to put a gun to my head and ask me where we are headed, I'll probably say 1240----1160 and maybe 1060 before we get to 1330.
How about... Today the PPT failed to halt the bears and the longs drew in their horns. The VIX spiked above its 200 MA. Followers of Taleb, hoping for a black Monday to justify years of losses started licking their chops. It's likely that a combination of some Fed official speak and expiry driven buying by put sellers will once again bail nervous margin players out from a potential 1+ sigma loss for the month. I think I got them all in to save everyone else the trouble.
yes. a substanial decline is entirely possible on monday/tuesday/wednesday next week. remember the market always tips its hand one way or another. be prepared for anything, however! surfer