I don't think this turns into much. The ECB continues with liquidity, but they aren't raising it any more...the headlines saying "freezing it" is akin to your credit card company saying they aren't raising your credit line - it's a bit misleading to get some extra clicks on the story I suppose. The threat to not open the banks has been on the table for weeks. In January or February, this was a big deal because exposures were unknown and it was new. Today all the major exposures are with the ECB and IMF and everyone else has had ample time to square their affairs. All that's left is the hand wringing and car burning from those that agreed all along that bills could go unpaid in the interest of "fairness and equality". But those folks don't have any funds in the bank anyway. For the rest of the world, the real issue is what someone posted earlier - focus is next upon Spain, Italy and Portugal. They also have some steepening bills and ongoing math problems.
40%?? yes that can happen. I remember in 2008 everyone 401K was down like 30% to 55%. The market rule is "never say never" All stocks have the potential to go down from 10% to 90% From AAPL, to NFLX and to SHACK !!!!
Fear of a default in Greece will increase the possibility of Ireland, Spain, Italy getting into the same situation and their bonds will start to sell off and that will create margin sand you will see its effect on all "nonrelated" stocks like WMT, CAT, INTC,............You name it.
TZA is down from 4x16=$72 to $9 in the last 3 years so doubling to $18 would still be not surprising. ADI can easily drop $10 and still be overvalued based on its P/E compared to it peers. MCD can drop $10 to $87 and still be pricy based on its diminishing sales and non existent plan to restructure. The story goes on and on.
The biggest risk concerning Spain & Italy is a booming Greece in a few years time while they continue to stagnate and deciding to follow suit
Will this be the first domino to fall? Probably it will be a temporary blip. But I can see an outside scenario (I would handicap it at 5% odds) where this steamrolls into a global mess that results in capital controls, massive wealth confiscation and Obama delaying the 2016 elections. He seems to be able to interpret laws as he sees fit, not as was written. Words are now meaningless that the SCOTUS have twice twisted the words in the ACA in order to justify what was "intended by the authors" rather than written. If they can do that with one law, how can we be sure they won't do it with many others?