With the Fed's constant manipulation of the market to prevent a crash, and with the economy SLOWLY improving from the depths of 2008, there is no reason to expect a major market crash on Monday, which is why I precisely believe it will happen. It could very well be a Black Swan event or just fatigue of stock, financial, currency markets from the constant bullcrap its been fed over the years...
If it happens I don't see it happening until we get a sudden stream of disappointing earnings conference calls(especially forward guidance) from multiple bellwether companies (like Fedex just did) and even more econ contraction data from china
Black Swan needs a catalyst ... Spain asking for bailout might do it ... or Iran/Israel ~ I would love a 10% down move ... doesn't have to be in one day.
not enough..fed will step in and assure that whatever company will have all their and gvt support....not allowed to happens..period.. most likely trigger for such event can be either some terrorists act or some really bad news from europe..or asia. like war between china and japan over those islands..something really crazy
Why is ET so full of doomers and gloomers ? Yet the market has gone nowhere but up in the past 3 years. Just out... U.S. Senate passes bill to fund federal government for 6 months, putting off a shutdown. Bill now goes to president. Don't fight the fed, it's dumb, embrace it instead. Does not matter if you agree or disagree with Ben, they are still the biggest player in town, follow their footsteps.
Black swan events are not predictable, unless you have material inside information (highly unlikely that anyone one ET have that), so please do not try to predict one. It seems to me that people on this site have been calling for a crash for the last 300 points now. Not necessarily pointing any fingers, as I`ve been guilty of it myself, but this market just won`t crash. Shit has hit the fan multiple times and the market barely even pulls back. What is different this time?
I got sick of watching losses mount in my trading account and closed out all my put positions on Friday. Which can mean only one thing. Now that I'm out, the market will pullback. REITs/realestate stocks look weakest.