Black Monday...

Ok but why want lower or higher unless you are a swing trader why not just trade your setups either way. I am getting a bit frustrated over here in China and not able to get into the market I think their could be some great setups in the coming week and I only gt back thursday.

Good luck to everyone trading make some cash

 

Ok here is what I expect, the asian markets and europe will tank sunday night. Actually, they will freak out. That will bring the Futures down some more Sunday leading into Monday morning. Who knows how low the S&P will be down by the time that the market opens.

The market will gap down Moday morning and likely rebound as every idiotic talking head on CNBC convinces Mom/Pop that this is a buying opportunity. Plus the shorts will want to cover after the gap down.

That is just one persons opinion. I believe that probability is in my favor and I have and will trade accordingly. Furthermore, I believe that the upside risk is very low on Monday which makes this setup with the short term trend (which is down) a very good opportunity.


If I am wrong, well my system will get me out at a loss, and there will be no hard feelings.

1) Trade with the trend (which is down)
2) Plan your trade.
3) Trade your plan.

Why is that so difficult?

Good luck all

 

Relax! The trend is down and this feels like 2001 all over again when everyone kept saying the bottom was in. The bottom wont be in for another year or two.

All you can do is wake up each day and find that your investments just slipped another 2%. You will wake up in the months to come to find the SPX dwindling further closer to 3 figure territory.

You can slap your face with water, jump up and down...there is nothing you can do...I know "crash" is a strong word which brings about different negative thoughts, but I cant think of any other word to describe what is happening. Once the spy lingers under 134 for a few more days then there will be a big drop and it will get away from you once again.

There wont be any third bottom. The floor will be taken out and who knows how fast or hard it will drop. I say 115 as a good starting point, but it could go lower MUCH lower.

You want to know reality? I will tell you what is real. Google is going to the 100s. CFC is nothing more then a cheap penny stock. CC will go bankrupt.

WAKE UP THE BULL MARKET IS OVER! THERE WILL NOT BE ONE FOR ANOTHER 8 YEARS! ALL YOU CAN DO IS GO SHORT OR BUY PUTS! THATS THE ONLY WAY YOU WILL SAVE YOUR INVESTMENT EXCEPT FOR THROWING IT ALL INTO US SAVINGS BONDS! THAT IS REALITY! NOW LIVE IT!

 

I doubt you were trading back then I was and was a very different feel to it if you had been you would know that. I think the GE report WAS a wake up to the market that had grown complacent and that thought the Bear Bailout was the the bottom as the market let a few bad numbers slide. I really dont think anyone serious would take the rest of your predictions seriously though just a bit of weekend fun isnt it? I di think the run up in the techs is a selling opp

 

Let's talk about that in 4 years, when US savings bonds will yield 15%+.

 

heres a case study in moving average/analysis of trend...

take a look at the yearly signal on the crossover, the signal kept you invested throughout this bull run...now its indicating a sell signal..

 

so when did the original yearly buy signal originate...second half of 2003..

 

so when was the last bear market signal.

2nd half of 2000, so if the signals keep you in the market and take you out appropriately...

can sideways action chopp you up.. yeah..if its range time market over a multiyear span.

 

This is from another link posted just now. How do you think Markets will handle that?

04-13-08 04:54 AM

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/t...icle3671568.ece

CITIGROUP and Merrill Lynch will heap further pain on Wall Street this week as they reveal additional sub-prime write-downs totalling $15 billion (£7.6 billion) or more.

In another sign of the intense pressure on leading banks, Deutsche Bank is attempting to offload some of its €35 billion (£28 billion) of toxic debt to a consortium of private-equity firms.

Huge exposure to American mortgages is expected to result in Citi taking a $10 billion hit to its accounts, dragging the bank to a first-quarter loss of almost $3 billion. Some analysts believe Citi’s write-downs could stretch to as much as $12 billion.

Merrill will suffer $5 billion of write-downs, analysts say, which would push the bank $2.7 billion into the red.

It is expected to knock a further 20% from the value of its sub-prime holdings, in spite of the fact that it announced $18 billion of write-downs only three months ago.

The new rash of Wall Street losses and write-downs come in addition to the billions that have already been recorded.

The world’s biggest banks have suffered losses and write-downs totalling almost $250 billion since the beginning of 2007, according to analysts. Last week the IMF shocked markets by saying that global losses from the credit crisis could rise to $945 billion.

JP Morgan is expected to offer the only glimmer of hope from this week’s results, posting a small profit, in spite of huge exposures to leveraged loans.

Some of the world’s biggest banks are beginning to work on new solutions to relieve tension in the financial markets.

Deutsche Bank is understood to be talking to a number of private-equity funds about a disposal of some of its backlog of loans to venture-capital firms.

The value of leveraged loans sitting on Deutsche’s balance sheet is greater than its shareholder equity. The bank is planning to sell on the loans to the private-equity funds at a loss to free up its balance sheet, according to market sources.

The plan mirrors a similar move by Citi to sell $12 billion of its leveraged-loan portfolio to private-equity firms including Blackstone, Apollo and Texas Pacific Group.

The Citi deal is hoping to close the deal in time for this week’s results. It is one of a number of significant moves by Vikram Pandit, Citi’s new chief executive.

But the sale could be hampered by problems with the planned inclusion of loans related to EMI, the music business. Citi bankrolled its buyout last year by Terra Firma Capital Partners, and still holds about $5 billion of EMI debt.

It was reported yesterday that Citi had been forced to remove some of these loans from the sale after buyers complained they did not have sufficient financial information on EMI.

Citi announced plans to sell its Diners Club credit-cards business to Discover last week, and is also considering a sale of its German retail-banking operations.

City insiders believe job losses are inevitable. Pandit is thought to be considering a radical reshaping of the bank’s equity research organisation. Insiders say that it may be slimmed down to focus on its top 300 clients, rather than providing a wider service to investors.

Some banks are looking to use the crisis to steal a march on their competitors. HSBC last week revealed its intention to use the tightening credit conditions as an opportunity to boost its 3% share of the UK mortgage market.

Abbey, which is owned by Spain’s Santander, has written close to 20% of all the mortgages handed out in Britain in the first quarter, according to sources close to the company. The bank is funding its expansion in the market by attracting more money from savers, analysts say.

 

15 Billions for both C and MER *might* be priced in. We'd need 20+ at least to send the markets running for the door.