black monday?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by bat1, Mar 1, 2008.

  1. bat1


    stock markets are not holding up!

    but I never heard of a crash in March

    this could be the first
    shorts win again:p
  2. Sorry ding bat, a crash isn't necessary to take out a gaggle of pikers. March 3rd is an important cycle date but so is March 10 and March 20. Historically several cycles have resolved themselves in March. In 2001 we saw a rally to March 8th and then a waterfall decline to March 22nd with a secondary bottom April 4th. Conversely, 90% of a cycles damage occurs in the last 10%. It is important to note that the 1908, 1948, 1968, 1978, and 1988 cycles all creep higher all year after the first quarter. The danger points return from September to Election Day and then back into the bear phase. Most of the (long)money you’ll make this year will be from April to July.

    More than likely additional funds will be BK and early dip buyers will get crushed from liquidation.

    Stocks with your March 03 cycle turns:

    Happy trails guano and don't over leverage your shorts.
  3. Dude, only need to go back maybe 4 weeks or so.

    Otherwise, if you'd like to see something bearish, check out the double top on this baby!

    Going back to the beginning is like trying to predict what new technologies will arise in 10 years using the Garden of Eden for a reference.
  4. Thanks Dude, for the advice but I've been doing this since I was sixteen, successfully since twenty-two and I'm presently forty-eight.

    ...and how old are you?
  5. Same age as you - and because I do not already know it all, I still am learning.

  6. That was a good one! LOL
  7. Me too, learning something everyday. You can never stop. I wish I had more lives.:)
  8. Well thanks!

    This board can test ones character!

    Initially, the opening post was only about the month of march.

    I've been in this for only about 10 years - still studying and learning every day.
    One thing for sure in out of the handful of full time traders I know personally, the best of them are humble - got that way thanks to the market.

    One other thing I feel for sure is, if you are looking forward 1 month, no need to look back any more than a month or so - depends on key levels.

    Currently, we are in a bear market - as such, I would tend to agree that march could be a bad one - we'll find out lol.
  9. infolode you talk like you know exactly whats going to happen. Out of anything i've learned, nobody knows exactly where the market is going to go, just follow it. And judging by fridays trade, the market seems like it can fall apart on no news at all, yea it seemed pretty stable during the week, but the downside comes much quicker than the upside. I don't know whats going to happen but I hope your dead wrong and the dow tanks 1500 pts from here to september. Keep trading off of your late 1800 signals LOL?:)
  10. Let back-up, I didn't mean to imply I know what's going to happen. I was responding with a bit of sarcasm to the op because of yet another black (insert day) thread.

    I trade in several time frames, so yes, I use cycle analysis as one of my tools. The weighting of which is dependent upon the time frame. Whether I'm scaling into a pm position or scalping points in the chop zone. I'm not selling anything nor am I trying to convince anyone that cycles are the grail. The grail is finding a method that works for you, trading instruments that you know cold and mantaining a discipline at all times.

    That's all I've got.
    #10     Mar 1, 2008