I agree Iceman. I think this is one of the biggest short traps in years. Im Bearish on American in general...but this was just to coincidental after a fluff run up. Greece is the news. Inflation is the news. But this is nothing new.
LOL... OK, Nitro.. your thread caught my eye, it had all the good stuff (Halloween Massacre, etc. LOL).... and, with the help of MF Global, you got a part of it, with a follow through on tuesday... Not too bad... kind of like when they predict a hurricane and we only get winds and rain, but a good call nonetheless... All the best, Don
The market is experiencing almost classic "ringing" motion after this shock, and not only on the daily level, but on almost all time frames, in another words, there are levy statistics at work and the market is showing fractal statistics. The bias is definitely higher for now (at least the next few days), but it is extremely fragile.
how do you bias is higher for next few days....please enlighten us....i understand a fair bit of maths, so please explain as you please. thanks for sharing
The dips keep getting bought so expect this fluffy tape to get bid back up to par before todays close. Doesn't matter if jobs stay at 9% unemployment. Doesn't matter if Greece is on fire. Doesn't matter if Italy can't role over debt and it doesn't matter if brokers commit major fraud and blow up. MM's think its all cheap relative to pe ratios and the HFT folks can have their way with the tape all day long. Buy Buy Buy. And if any nasty news comes out of the woodwork rest assured that some central banker or politician will administer the dope required by the junkies.
canuckrookie ---------------------------------- Nobody is in this market. Don brights boys are trading against other Bucket Shops for pennies, Funds are sloshing around the same capital that they have had, minus the massive out flows the last few years, hedge funds are closing and MF capital has left the building. Oh, do not forget the HFT's kicking every ones arse. Bottom line, the "Public" whom the market needs to make pennies off of has left the building for good. So, now it's nobs trading against nobs. Smart money is doing other things at the moment.
Sorry EMRGlobal, I am being very sarcastic in my comments. I know funds are facing record redemptions and the dumb hedgies and props are closing while the smart ones are sitting on their hands because this market doesn't make sense to them. Now if your a trader then gl trading the volatility.
See this thread. OFV (Optimistic Fair Value) is considerably higher than SPX. That is what I base my "higher bias" on: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3349076#post3349076