Black Monday Oct 31, 2011

Europe currently down about 3%. Combine the correction with the news of the greek refferendum, could we hit -6% by the end of the day? Everyone's reading those news and the polls suggest Greece will vote yes on leaving the Euro in January. This could indeed be the start of the crash, unless they postpoine it, go for early elections, or Greece is invaded by China and declared a protectorate, whichever is most likely to happen - i'm not sure. If I was into positioning, I'd be short from here on end.

 

Futures are down -2.5%.

I think Nitro's grade has just improved to A-

 

So far this has been pretty orderly selling, not a crash, remember that was the original prediction "intraday limit down moves in many stocks, or 10%" - we haven't seen anything like that (yet)

Also Nitro waffled on his prediction last week so I don't see how you can give any credit no matter how you look at it:

Still, interesting timing.

 

I still think you could be right. Blach Monday or black Friday doesn't matter much.

 

DOW megaphone looking confirmed.

http://stockmarket618.files.wordpress.com/2011/10/2011-10-31_dow_dy_x.png

 

MF Global was the Black Monday

 

Nitro "Missed it by that much!"

I'm probably the only one here who remembers Get Smart...

 

damn

why didn't I add more NDX OIH puts

oh yeah, my dartboard was off by ONE day

 

you are off only by one day.
TODAY IS THE DAY.........

 

FWIW, if we close today more or less where we are now, THESE TWO DAYS is what I meant when I said that IF we get two days OF NERVOUSNESS Thursday and Friday, THEN Monday (yesterday) could be a crash with odds much much much MUCH higher than normal. Down 3% is nowhere near a crash.

So, tomorrow is the danger day, but the timing is all off now. Instead of the odds of a crash being a four standard deviation event, it is now probably a six or seven standard deviation event.