Well he can't lose, can he? If he's wrong, everyone will just forget about his prediction. If he's right, he will be hailed as a genius.
the neural network i am running has just spit out this formula: large_move_prediction + exact_date = chances_are_Nitro_lost_it i would love to see a crash but we must play the odds -- Shortie Thorp Out
Agreed. The fact that I named the date and said it would crash reduces the actual chance of a crash. Strange, but that is the way markets work. But I stand by what I said.
Remember, between here and there, the trend is likely higher, perhaps sideways. You will know if this is a good trade if there is great nervousness the Thursday and Friday into that weekend.
1. trend higher/sideways + 2. nervousness Thur/Fri - (huge volatility but all to the upside on indices) no crash then unless nervous Friday?
well if you are right then my long puts will perform well (and I better close the short side, pronto) ... its certainly possible to get a sell-off but I cannot see a flash crash or a real crash. I don't know if you are using hyperbole and being dramatic, or if you really, sincerely have some cogent basis to publicly state such an opinion on a trading website, to believe such a scenario could unfold. What is the precedent, historical perspective or T/A basis for such a call? I have been 100% correct in recently privately favoring upside over downside. Did I get the most bang for my correctness? No. Because I cannot afford to risk as much as I could in the past. Thus I spread positions too much, cutting down upside on days like this; and also buy back month options then leg in and out of weekly and front months 7-8 times. However, I did transfer a lot of cash into aggressive mutual funds near their 12 months lows on October 3-10th. It was hard for me to do this since most of these sheep funds managers might as well use a dartboard. They all seem to buy the same stuff. For this they get paid big bucks. Nevertheless, figured my timing was good, and hopefully into January. If we get a hard sell off will move more cash into funds. Anyway, what's the support for your view of a crash? And further, if you are going to offer all of these opinions that we read daily from you... let us know what targets you see for NDX, SPY, DOW etc. What do you mean by a "crash?" Can there be a down wave. Yes. But a crash as you state? Hard to see. Has ther ever been a "crash" in November? I have been out of market (didn't even watch CNBC since 2006). Has November witnessed an October crash? TY