Black Monday Oct 31, 2011

"Merkel's Leadership 'Like Captain of Titanic': Analyst"

"The only real solution to the crisis currently dragging down the euro zone is the scrapping of the single currency, according to John Wadle, head of regional banks research at Mirae Asset...."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/45299872

 

Goldman´s Blankfein said today at Bank of America conference;

“I don’t think that we can conclude that this slowdown is secular rather than cyclical change,” Blankfein, 57, said today at an investor conference in New York hosted by Bank of America Corp. (BAC)’s Merrill Lynch unit. “The world will snap back and it will be a surprise and it will be faster than people think.”

Warren B. buying IBM for $10 billion (ask yourself why he is buying NOW and not lets say in a couple of months IF EU crisis is really coming?

J. Kyle Bass, portfolio manager at Dallas-based Hayman Capital Management LP, bought the 4.9% stake in MGIC Investment Corp, according to federal filings.

Something is lurking behind the corner and I see massive signs of optimism...

 

Ok,

Well those are exactly the things that I tune out. But I understand why you would think that is a good sign.

 

I am going out on a limb again. This [options] expiration week will be very volatile. Probably the biggest swings will come on Wed/Thurs/Fri. A loss of 3 to 5% this week.

Those people that buy/sell option, puts are likely underpriced, and by extension, calls (since you can purchase a synthetic put).

 

Making predictions on the internet is going out on a limb? Well then I'm gonna show you who has the balls around here.

I predict that S&P will crash 500 pts on 14 February, it will be called the heart break.

 

Oh yeah.. uh uh... I'll go out on a limb too!!!

Equities will close within 25 cents of the strike price...

 

That was a disturbing crash. Hopefully you heavily shorted the market and held until now.

 

Black Monday?

 

23rd time lucky?

 

I see little to support a crash on Monday. It looks more like a sideways but volatile day setting up likely bound by the previous days trading ranges. I think there might be some surprising reversal on the bond market as they got punished. With that kind of beating an abusive market might let up so as not to kill the organism.