Black Monday Oct 31, 2011

I have never made these sorts of predictions, but there it is. I think we see intraday limit down moves in many stocks, or 10%. We may see index daily limits set, although that is far less likely.

This won't be a "Flash Crash", but a real crash.

 

You've made over sixteen thousand posts. Are you sure none of them have been predictions?

I would dearly love a crash, 2008 style.. but I know that prediction is futile. ALWAYS.

 

Why October 31st?

 

These past two weeks have been a carbon copy of the empty rhetoric we heard back in the fall of 2008. Managing the market with empty promises as I'd like to call it. As you've probably noticed, one talking head in the Eurozone implies a multi trillion dollar bailout entity and after the market closes, another talking head denies the rumor. Makes no difference, the only intent was to create a market moving event to adjust the portfolios of the at risk entities.

It's simply in your face poltiical manipulation, the exact same thing we saw in the weeks before and after TARP and the alphabet soup of other "programs" to manage the collapse.

 

I make lots of "predictions", but those are normal tradeable stances, for example (I am just linking to the last post):

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3332294#post3332294

I don't think I have ever predicted a large move in my life, although I might have. I don't remember.

 

It will be remembered as the Halloween Crash.

 

so what was your reasoning?

I'm still on the "kick the can down the road crash of 2011" thinking, but these endless rumors to prop up mkt are taking their toll on me. lol

 

There is a lot of general awareness about the possibility of a crash and clear memories of 2008 persist. Some would say this reduces the probability of another crash, but I really have no opinion at all on this.

 

may I be the first in line to be hired to your hedge fund if the prediction comes true?

 

Markets are in the mode of destroying long term confidence in itself. A crash people were expecting plays into it. Anybody long and expecting a crash or on the edge and get hit again within 3 years will really get discouraged. Last, the biggest myth of Helicopter Ben saving it with inflation will really flush everybody the wrong direction and has worked so far with bonds.