http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tm...m/20020720/bs_nm/markets_stocks_magazine_dc_1 ultimate buy signal.lol
The specter of a serious (not that the past 2 weeks have not been serious) crash on Monday grew when the Dow cascaded through the 8061 level. Although I do believe the markets will rally this upcoming week, I don't see this happening until Tuesday at the earliest. Longer term, I think the ultimate bottom will occur once we reach the level of the infamous "irrational exuberance" speech- 6400-ish. Of course, the sooner Bush fires Pitt, White, and the whole Treasury crew, the sooner we get a non bear market. Actually, when I think about it, its entirely possible the President's comments about Cheney's ultimate absolution by the SEC is going to cause a horrid problem for Pitt. If the SEC finds the VP has done nothing wrong (most likely case), then the Dems will scream bloody murder about the fix being in, and the market sells off. If by some bizzaro action, the SEC finds fault with Cheney, Bush will have to jettison him, if only to retain some credibility as a reformer, and the market plummets. The third scenario, which would be the worst, the SEC finds Cheney and HAL have been among the evildoers, and the President excuses his behaviour, then the market tanks, and we lose a generation of investors, not to mention a CEO President. Just my 2 cents,
Barron's Market Laboratory, page MW43, under the heading 'NYSE Member Report' shows specialists to be long about 103 million shares, which is nearly 100 million shares less than last week. I just discovered this stuff, so I have no idea where in the trend this data lies. It also shows the specialists to be 60% as short as the public, and other members to be 80% as short as the public. Finally, odd lot short sales are 2.75 million shares, a little over 2 million shares less than last week, but more than twice as much as last year. Sentiment data are on page MW45. Bearish sentiment is up across the board, though I don't know if the levels are decisive (I suspect they are). <a href="http://tal.marketgauge.com/dvmgpro/charts/CMFCASH.HTM">Mutual Fund cash levels</a> are historically low (see chart). There is a time to fade the crowd and time to get out of its way. etc.
"That's because BusinessWeek in 1979 ran a now-legendary cover with the title, "The Death of Equities," lamenting the sorry state on Wall Street after a decade of declining stock prices, including the severe 1973-74 bear market. That cover preceded the start of Wall Street's longest running bull market that began in 1982. " So, if this is truly a contrarian indication of a bottom, then we can expect the next bull market to begin in 2005. Great...another 3 years of pain and bleeding.
halts and outright closing crossed my mind...don't know if Monday will be the day, but it could be. I know the crowd is usually wrong but the problem is they haven't really done anything yet but complain. When they <i>act</i>, we'll have a clearer picture. About mutual fund cash levels: They are flat from the highs, nearly. Either there have redemptions and withdrawals (keeping cash levels relatively unchanged), or relatively little redemptions so far. Massive redemptions would argue for a spike in cash levels, unless the money is immediately swept home. Odd. I get S&P PE data that ranges from 17.6X trailing 12 months eps (from Barron's), to 40.07X 'operating eps.' (from S&P, as of 6/29 -- maybe that's the problem).
Read on. There's some bear stuff in there too. It's a mixed bag, really, except for the interview with Jeremy Grantham, which is hands down bearish.