Black Friday Surprise equivalent to a surprise Fed cut?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by shortie, Nov 25, 2007.

  1. Nov. 24 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. consumers spent $10.3 billion on holiday purchases yesterday, an 8.3 percent increase from last year, after retailers promoted electronics and toys to woo shoppers.

    This gotta be a nice positive surprise. Could this be comparable to a surprise rate cut as far as the market's reaction? I have read somewhere that a surprise rate cut gives Dow a lift of 100 points.
  2. Daal


    never short the consumer, i hope your right
  3. thats akin to telling a guy who only has a dollar to his name that he can buy a tv for .25 cents. of course he will buy it,they are giving it to him. analysts will weigh in on how deep the discounts weere.
  4. Americanos buy everything in sight, even when they have no money
  5. This will indeed be taken as a bullish signal but it remains to be seen how the market will price it in. I say it's not going to be equivalent to a fed descicion but it is going to drive new buyers into the market.
  6. Maybe they bought the same amount and it cost 8.3% more. :confused: :D
  7. dis


    The BF shopping binge may forestall the next rate cut.
  8. Anyone know how many credit cards the average american has? I'd like an info source or link to such data.

  9. trendy


    By Cotten Timberlake and Tiffany Kary

    Nov. 25 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. consumers spent 3.5 percent less during the post-Thanksgiving Day holiday weekend than a year earlier as retailers slashed prices to lure customers grappling with higher food and energy costs.

    Shoppers spent an average of $347.44 on purchases from Nov. 22 through today, choosing to buy less-expensive digital- photo frames and cashmere sweaters, the National Retail Federation said today in a statement. Store visits increased 4.8 percent.

    Customers have cut back on spending in the face of increased costs for milk and gasoline and the worst housing slump in 16 years. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. responded by offering holiday discounts more than two weeks earlier than last year while Macy's Inc. and J.C. Penney Co. reduced clothing prices by as much as 60 percent.

    ``The sense we have this year is that shoppers are very mission-focused,'' said Fred Crawford, managing director for consulting and advisory firm AlixPartners LLP. ``They know who is carrying what, and at what price point.''

    More than 147 million consumers visited stores over the weekend, the NRF said, based on a poll it commissioned from BIGresearch. The average spending amount last year was helped by increased sales of high-definition televisions, NRF spokesman Scott Krugman said.

    ``It's the saturation of HD-TVs into the market, and also retailers recognizing that consumers will be more conservative this year and focusing on lower-priced merchandise,'' he said.

    November, December

    Sales in November and December represent 20 percent of retailers' annual revenue, according to the NRF. The fourth quarter accounts for almost a third of retailers' annual profit, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers.

    Sales on Nov. 23, called Black Friday because it was the day that retailers traditionally turn a profit for the year, rose 8.3 percent from a year earlier to $10.3 billion, Chicago- based research firm ShopperTrak RCT Corp. said yesterday.

    Wal-Mart, the world's biggest retailer, rose 87 cents, or 1.9 percent, to $45.73 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading on Nov. 23. Shares of the Bentonville, Arkansas-based seller of the most toys in the U.S. have fallen less than 1 percent this year.

    Macy's gained $1.53, or 5.4 percent, to $30.03 in New York trading and Target Corp. advanced $3.07, or 5.7 percent, to $57.17.

    Cyber Monday

    Online retail spending on ``Cyber Monday'' may surpass $700 million, a single-day record, as customers head to Inc. and to find bargains on flat-panel televisions and toys, research firm ComScore Inc. said today.

    Consumer purchases over the Internet rose 29 percent on Thanksgiving Day and 22 percent the day after, Reston, Virginia-based ComScore said. Spending tomorrow probably will exceed either of those days as people return to work from the holiday weekend, it said.

    Online visits on Black Friday increased 10 percent from a year earlier, according to data released today by research firm Nielsen Online.

    Web sites run by IAC/InterActiveCorp, owner of the HSN shopping channel and ticket broker Ticketmaster, were the most visited by U.S. shoppers from their homes, followed by, and Target Corp., New York-based Nielsen said.

    The NRF in September predicted a 4 percent gain in total retail sales for November and December, the smallest gain since a 1.3 percent rise in 2002. The group reiterated its projection today.

    BIGresearch, based in Worthington, Ohio, polled 2,395 consumers on Nov. 22-24. The margin of error was plus or minus 1.5 percentage points.

    To contact the reporters on this story: Cotten Timberlake in Washington at ; Tiffany Kary in New York at .
  10. trendy


    #10     Nov 25, 2007