Ok look, IRs as they are now are extraordinarily favoring the stock market. That is already a huge tail wind. Say the stock market sells off from say November 9, 2016 to February 28, 2017 in anticipation of a recession and say Trump wins sending SPX to 1800 or a 10% decline from here. The FED will leave IRs at .50. The president whomever it is will easily pass infrastructure stimulus through congress. Since markets trade on expectations six months in advance, the markets will see things improving end of 2017 and start going higher right near the time the recession ends in early 2017. I see no reason why we couldn't go back from 1800 to 2300 from March to December, or an average gain of ~50 SPX per month, not because it should, but because with IRs at close to zero there is no rational pricing of the stock market. Of course, the recession could be much worse than this, and send the stock market to 1500. But I see no catalyst for that, not even Trump.
That model is ancient and offline. Current [long term] model that replaced that one [more like evolved from it] gives two estimates. Occasionally the two estimates are very close. Here they are widely divergent, giving FVs of 1950 an 2350. They are highly dynamic and continually update. I don't trade them but use their input to form subjective appraisals. The model that runs the trades that are posted on twitter is the live model that trades on intraday time frames.
I see your point and see what your saying, but to believe the market will dip and roar back even higher from where it is now is slowly becoming what everyone believes to be just the trend that its been for the last 7+ years and counting.....the fed is not touching rates even though they lied and lied and lied about raising them this year ...they were supposed to raise 4 times.... not one single raise has occurred and to think they will raise in December is ludicrous especially if Trump wins and markets fall as everyone is expecting... I'm hearing now that neither trump or Clinton is good for these markets......aside from that rates will most likely go NEGATIVE if recession is hard and long....fed is not even prepared for a recession. Stock buybacks which have also been propping this market up are drying up...that catalyst is fading for the markets ....and to think the market can keep going and going like it's been going rising over 200%+ and not see a pull back is just a laughing matter at this point. No market goes up in a straight line forever and what everyone should be welcoming is a healthy pullback and a bear market and a recession to clean out the system....everyone has failed to understand that economies work in cycles and in the last 20+ years with plenty of fed intervention there hasn't been a real economic cycle to even study since every single time the economy or market is on the verge of an inkling of a slowdown the fed comes in and does its magic.....thing is the fed is out of magic tricks....
Sure, but when you can borrow at zero IRs and people continue to lend corporations at that rate, you are up against a force so strong that it can overwhelm just about any other counter force. There is no rational price for the stock market when IRs are zero. No analysis you do is worth anything.
So looks like the futures are skyrocketing based on FBI not finding enough evidence to prosecute clinton....again if she wins Wed all losses for the last few weeks will be erased...look for at least a 350+ point open on the Dow Wednesday morning
One post you are telling us how stupid to expect a rally, and in another post you are telling us to expect a rally. Very confusing.