The jobs report in May was obviously an oulier. But is it "the invisible" hand manipulating the FED by timing hiring in such a way as to affect IRs? The DXY might get close to 97 today, and I am predicting a retest of 100 in the near future. Gold is in trouble short to near term and expect a test of 1300. US created 287K jobs in June vs. 175K expected, unemployment rate at 4.9 pct http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/08/us-c...75k-expected-unemployment-rate-at-49-pct.html
China just stunned the markets The People's Bank of China announced on Thursday that its foreign-exchange reserves surged by $13 billion to $3.21 trillion in June — much to everyone's surprise. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected reserves to come in at $3.17 trillion, in part because of the weaker pound and euro post-Brexit. Although, the stronger yen — which appreciated by over 7% against the US dollar last month — could have offset some of those effects. This was the biggest increase in 14 months — although h oldings are still down by about 20% from their June 2014 peak of $4 trillion. Notably, after the data crossed, economists and analysts all expressed different opinions on what this says about capital outflows. A Morgan Stanley team led by Gordian Kemen wrote in a note to clients that " ...t he continued stabilization of China's FX reserves over June ... suggests an easing of prior capital outflow pressures." Capital Economics' Julian Evans-Pritchard and Mark Williams argued that there's some evidence the PBoC is still defending its currency, although pressures have moderated. As they wrote in a note to clients:.. http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/china-just-stunned-the-markets/ar-BBu4Tva?li=BBnb7Kz
This is feeling an aweful lot like 1998 ish. The market entered a distribution phase where the smart money was selling to the dumb money, but the market went higher on 100x P/E to fantastic levels still not reached today more than 15 years later. If that scenario plays out again, I think it is not unreasonable to see SPX at ~2350 by year end. So if you are bearish, don't be a hero and think you know what is going to happen, wait in the bushes and pounce on down moves - this time the pullback from whereever this ends up is not an 8% of 10% move, it is a 20% move. So there is no reason to have to be right early.
Now that stocks are going higher again, this guy is thinking he can afford to send his kids to college and maybe even buy some beachfront property: http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/12/liveglobal-stocks-enter-rally-mode-take-cue-from-wall-street.html
This news of a coup in Turkey will not be taken well by markets. If it is not resolved by Sunday night, I expect we will see a sea of red. I am mostly interested in how it affects gold and oil. I think neither one will move much on it, with mostly bond markets and equity markets reacting in no small way on no resolution. But who knows...
Markets are ignoring every warning. All that matters is all the liquidity seeking any yield. Corporate bond defaults cross 100, highest level since crisis http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/14/corporate-bond-defaults-cross-100-highest-level-since-crisis.html
The USD/TRY and EUR/TRY are going to be reeeeally interesting come tonight, and probably for a few days.
Turkish Central Bank Pledges "Unlimited Liquidity" On Bank Run Fears: Wall Street's Take http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...ed-liquidity-bank-run-fears-wall-streets-take