Time of day studies abound, but they tend to only work in bull markets: Forget The 3:30pm Ramp, Stock Gains Are All About The Night Shift http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-...-market-gains-are-all-about-2am-european-open
Ships in transit has come to a near standstill. Almost identical information as the DRY baltic index, but this is more fun to see. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...-crashes-insiders-warn-commerce-has-come-halt
The Ten-Two is flattening, worrying people of a recession. The spread at 1.20 was support. We now at about 1.16 ish. Why there’s calm at flattening yield curve "The US yield curve is flattening. Should markets be worried? The difference in yield between US 10-year and two-year sovereign bonds this week contracted to less than 130 basis points, its narrowest since February and only a dozen basis points shy of the tightest spread since the height of the financial crisis in early 2008. Much of the contraction of late is due to surging short-term yields as the Federal Reserve prepares to raise interest rates, and long-term yields remain suppressed. In the past, this kind of flattening would get investors worried because it suggested tighter monetary policy was going to damage economic growth. Bank stocks would struggle as the prospect of less borrowing and tighter lending margins hit sentiment. But this time, the S&P 500 Bank index sits just shy of a seven-year high. The broader S&P 500 is eyeing record levels. The reason for this calm is that the pressures on the long end currently are considered benign..." http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b1655b80-934c-11e5-bd82-c1fb87bef7af.html#axzz3x9ysUs14
Yikes. S&P will plunge 75% on China deflation: SocGen bear http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/13/sp-will-plunge-75-on-china-deflation-socgen-bear.html
Well, model is following the market down lagged. Worst possible case. But no, not yet. "FV" 1940 as a write this.
A Towering Chinese Debt Mountain Looms Behind Market Gyrations "Lost in all the Chinese stock and currency market gyrations, policy missteps and mixed data is this economic reality: The government is constrained by a credit bubble that has ballooned to $28 trillion in an economy growing at its slowest pace in 25 years. Policy zig-zags have left investors divided over how wedded President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang are to financial sector reform and shifting their $10 trillion-plus economy from one powered by investment and exports to one more focused on consumption and services. China has appeared to backtrack on pledges to make itsmanagement of the yuan more market driven and there’s uncertainty over the government’s willingness to remove stock price supports imposed during a $5 trillion sell-off last summer. Amid the confusion, the benchmark CSI 300 Index, down 14 percent in 2016, has revisited the lows of last year’s rout and pressure on the currency continues. Against that backdrop, Chinese officialdom faces the high-wire act of trying to keep the economy growing rapidly enough to repay past obligations, without resorting to a fresh pick-up in debt to fund more stimulus. It was China’s reliance on credit-fueled growth in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis that resulted in one of the biggest debt expansions in recent history, and today’s hangover. "China is nowhere close to reining in its debt problems," said Charlene Chu, the former Fitch Ratings Ltd. analyst known for her warnings over China’s debt risks and now a partner of Autonomous Research Asia Ltd. "It is one of the key factors weighing on GDP growth and one of the reasons why foreign investors are so concerned ab out China’s trajectory." A report Tuesday is forecast to show China’s 2015 expansion slowed to 6.9 percent -- the weakest pace since 1990...." http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...e-debt-mountain-looms-behind-market-gyrations
If the DXY goes below 98 I believe we see a monster short term rally in SPX. But what could be the catalyst? Watch for dovish FED talk.