Black Every Day?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by nitro, Mar 17, 2008.

  1. nitro

    nitro

    Today is a serious reversal. Caught my systems off guard.

    SPX support at 2042. But it feels ominous.
     
    #281     Dec 9, 2015
  2. nitro

    nitro

    Jim Rickards: Obama Ending Alliance with Saudi Arabia and Killing the Petrodollar

     
    #282     Dec 9, 2015
  3. nitro

    nitro

     
    #283     Dec 9, 2015
  4. Nine_Ender

    Nine_Ender

    Markets have seemed "ominous" to you since SPX was 1100 and you had "models" predicting it was going to 850.
     
    #284     Dec 9, 2015
  5. noddyboy

    noddyboy

    Do us a favor and tell us when to sell would you?
     
    #285     Dec 9, 2015
  6. nitro

    nitro

    My models say long. I know, weird given that this is a "Black Every Day" thread. But I call them as I program them.
     
    #286     Dec 9, 2015
  7. noddyboy

    noddyboy

    I was asking snarky Nine_Ender, but thanks for your reply. Is this the same model as last year? My model is currently flat.
     
    #287     Dec 9, 2015
  8. nitro

    nitro

    Oh sorry didn't get that.

    No this is a radically different SPX model than anything I have done before.
     
    #288     Dec 9, 2015
  9. nitro

    nitro

    The talk is that the junk bond market is imploding. However, the theory is that since this is mostly energy related, that the risk to the economy and particularly the stock market is not as bad as it was in 2007/08/09 since that junk bond implosion was due to the financial market. So, while this willl hurt, it is not a "canary in the coal mine" type scenario:

    One year HYG

    hyg.png
     
    #289     Dec 11, 2015
  10. nitro

    nitro

    FWIW, my models did something I have never seen them do. The divergence between the two SPX models is the highest I have ever seen. It is as if it is telling that we are in a kind of Heisenberg Uncertainty, which can go either way. One model is pointing much higher, the other much lower, with the SPX almost exactly in the middle. Usually the discrepancy between them is logical. Not anymore. My oil models had this divergence in them well before the SPX model, but I chose to ignore them (my hedge was not nearly enough) :(

    Since until very recently they were both saying higher, I positioned myself that way. Ouch.
     
    Last edited: Dec 11, 2015
    #290     Dec 11, 2015