Didn't Henry Blodgett kind of "find religion" after the tech bubble? It's been so many years since he was basically the most publicized Wall St. analyst ("shill at that time")...kind of reminds me of Harry Dent...wild prognostications in both directions.
VIX at ~20. Imo the FED has no reason left not to raise on Thursday by .25. It may raise less, and it may not raise at all. I give the odds of a raise of .25 50%, and no raise and a raise of less than .25 the other 50%.
I bet now yellen and friends wish the markets opened this monday instead of August 24th with a 1000 point drop, now that they have zero excuses not to raise... We are going to see wild wild swings come Thursday....even though the VIX is at 20 that could change very, very quickly. It could easily jump back to the 30's or even 40+ I just hope it starts to gain because I can't stand these low volatility markets....boring as Fu$k
If Schiff is correct about the FED and the economy, this is setting up for the trade of the century. Imagine if the FED really can't raise rates until it has no choice, and all the FED-speak is just a con of the FX markets. That it will be forced to react to a $4 QUADRILLION dollar a day FX market instead of being in front of it. Consider it for a moment. Unprecedented devistation will ensue when the dollar is literally vaporized and as a result commodities go to levels that will make peoples eyes pop out of their sockets. You better start planting your own tomatoes and wheat in your back yard, if you still have a back yard. You better own an electric car because I can't even name an oil price. Forget about Schiff's Gold prediction being wrong from $2000, if his thesis plays out he will be right about that too and gold will go to $15,000 USD an ounce.
The FED reminds me of Betelgeuse. Interest rates at zero and the con of the FX markets are the fusion keeping the economy from imploding. The FX markets are gravity.
I am not even sure FED getting ahead of the curve and tighten say 100 basis points in six months can help at this point. I think this is good analysis: http://www.ashraflaidi.com/articles/fed-tightening-cycles-usd-performance
"...Yellen contended that the central bank would need to tighten policy in a "timely fashion," adding that delaying could lead to abrupt moves. She reiterated the Fed's stance that the timing of the first hike matters less than making subsequent moves gradually. "The more prudent strategy is to begin tightening in a timely fashion and at a gradual pace," Yellen said." Of course!!! I think the FED gets it now, and if Yellen backs down from this, not one will believe her ever again. Although I think when the first rate hike happens does matter. It is waaaaay overdue. In spite of this, these are absolutely the right words. It will likely send the SPX to 1700ish if the rate hikes come in a principled manner of say one per meeting until we reach say 100 basis, but the alternative is gambling with a possible result of complete devistation of the dollar. As the analysis above shows, the dollar may have an initial selloff, but it will be brief with a rip higher after the second rate hike. Needless to say, I will believe it when I see it, and the con of the FX markets continues until I see TWO rate hikes. IMO, the idea is to avoid a hard recession, not to save the stock market. The stock market will rise in a healthy manner and will take care of itself as we transition to a normalization in all markets. You raise when you can in a principled manner. Not when you have to. http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/24/yellen-rate-hike-likely-appropriate-this-year.html
Brazil or something else will explode before they even get around to Oct/Dec "hikes." There's always something.
The moment of truth has arrived. SPX 1872 is a major pivot. Forget the actual low of 1867, that was noise around the true level. This is where I watch what the FED says and does. If it comes out dovish here trying to pry up the stock market, we know they will never raise rates because the FED will have a medical condition from which it cannot recover not even with psychoanalysis: The FED believes the stock market can rise from here on its own, where in reality the only thing keeping it here in the first place is the FED itself. So Schiff will be right and it becomes an endless impossible to raise situation, forever. Until the FX market has enough and runs over the FED by decimating the $ like a bug on a newly paved street. Then the FED will be forced to act at the worst possible moment. If the FED lets the chips fall where they may as the stock market reprices the hike(s), I say we see a rate hike in October with a probability likely in the 50%, and in 2015 with near certainty. We'll see.....