The "Calamitous Club" has a new member: Brazil http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/01/the-calamitous-club-has-a-new-member-brazil.html In bad times, correlations go to 1.
Dip buyers crying because many of them have never seen a VIX 40 day where 100s of DOW points come and go in a blink of an eye. WELCOME TO THE REAL WORLD. NYSE doesn't plan to bust any trades on market volatility http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/24/nyse...et-volatility.html?trknav=homestack:topnews:6
Dip buyers angry with Lockhart. My opinion, wait in September if things have not normalized. But hike this year. Normalization to me means a VIX no higher than 20. I don't care where the stock market is or that the cry babies don't have higher stock prices on the back of the cotton candy of low interest rates. If the markets can't go up on their own, find a way to have everyone share in the economy with lowering the REAL UNEMPLOYMENT rate. Then consumer discretionary spending goes up and you have a real economy, not an elitists economy, with the hope of building a real middle class. If the VIX is at or below 20 on September meeting, hike it. Lockhart still expects 2015 rate hike to start 'gradual' normalization Aug 24 2015, 16:24 ET | By: Jason Aycock, SA News Editor On an atypically interesting day for Fedspeak -- to say the least -- Atlanta Fed chief Dennis Lockhart says he's still expecting the central bank to raise rates in 2015, though he's dropped "September" from expectations he had just two weeks ago. In a speech in Berkeley, Calif., Lockhart said he expected "normalization" to start this year after nearly a decade of near-zero policy, and to "proceed gradually, the implication being an environment of low rates for quite some time." He seems "complicating factors" in predicting growth as being the strong dollar (and devaluation of the yuan) and a continuing decline in oil prices. His own forecast for GDP growth, he says, can't help but be influenced by recent history -- 2.1% average annual growth since 2009, "slow growth" -- and he says Atlanta Fed's baseline forecast is for "moderate growth with continuing employment gains and a gradually rising rate of inflation." http://seekingalpha.com/news/274336...radual-normalization?uprof=32&dr=1#email_link
This guy hits it on the head. Listen to the video carefully, and think through all angles of the economy. The funniest part is that everyone wants more of the same - begging Yellin not to raise rates. The price according to him [paraphrasing]"of endless money printing and low interest rates? Higher stock markets (because more leveraged money gets in the hands of people that have no clue how to invest), but the actual companies themselves DON'T growth and innovate. And there is too much of everything." I am not sure because all innovation is done in the tech part of the economy anyway. All this does is secure old companies from being replaced by nimbler ones, at least for a while since "the metabolism of capitalism slows down dramatically". Capitalism is not capitalism anymore. Grant: Central bank mispricing is backdrop to selloff http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/24/jim-...-and-should-override-the-price-mechanism.html
Trade Weighted US $ Index http://www.kitco.com/ind/Sieron/201...-Crisis-Mean-For-The-U-S-Dollar-And-Gold.html
Carry Trade: The Multi-Trillion Dollar Hidden Market The dollar is soaring. The U.S. stock market is making new highs. U.S. T-bond yields are declining, causing T-bond prices to rise while all the experts say they are too overvalued. European government bonds actually yield less than U.S. Treasuries, which makes no sense because the U.S. bonds are considered much safer. Many analysts confess that they are mystified. What is the driving force for these moves? The “carry trade.”... http://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2014/09/04/carry-trade-the-multi-trillion-dollar-hidden-market/
An important tool for every trader to know and use: http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/fed-funds.html
Look at the dollar gain against almost most DXY currencies. The fools are at it again. They want exposure to the US equity markets. When the next leg down comes, guess who gets a new one ripped?