No one knows anything about tomorrow. But probabilities - which I call shades of grey- serve to nudge uncertainty towards a way or another. I'd say @johnarb spends a fair amount of his time on the subject and thus his predictions may weight more than those of others. Of course if he is consistently or significantly wrong he'll lose credibility but, in this case, he isn't alone projecting a 200k valuation. I'll hold on to my BTC, just in case.
I do not post the other bitcoin price targets with a 99.9988% probability It is true I believe that $300k/btc by eoy is very possible but I do not put a probability % on it I'm happy to see $200k/btc before eoy 2025 with 99.9988% probability As bitcoin is our life savings account, 100% move up in price from here is very good for our life savings value, surely you can understand that? Btw, bitcoin will hit $1M/btc before 12/31/2029 11:59 PM with a 99.9988% probability Bitcoin price will keep going up, there is no ceiling, as I have advised you many times, buy 1 whole bitcoin now or as much as you can afford
I found another guy who is wildly bullish. This was an excellent episode, and he comes from TradFi, so I think this gives him quite a bit of respect. I think what will be necessary to go to 200k and beyond this year will be a major macro event. But given the way things are going with Trump, I think there is a very good chance that something like this happens. I doubt that Doge will save as much as expected, and the bigger the savings, the bigger the hit to the economy. All those laid of government workers will absolutely drag GDP down, and those tariffs will increase inflation. But the collapse is already well under way, so it doesn't really matter much what they try in my opinion. Everyone will find Bitcoin at some point, and perhaps even every American with some Bitcoin backed US bonds!
I wish that you are right and you guys make a good profit out of it. But the point is that those percentages come from licking your index finger against the wind. There's no way you can forecast a price with that accuracy. You pointed to one post where you were right. But you have said like 200 times that prices would go to 300k before 2025. You obviously do not point to those posts. If you make a simple statistic about your predictions.you were about 90% of the time wrong. I can also make up percentages as you can see.
I personally know 10 people who died in car accidents, well motorcycling without helmet does that to you too. But Big Auto doesn't want you to know!!! Horses are much safer!!! Ride baby, ride!
Thank you for the good wishes I get what you are saying that I have posted a lot of price targets, which in the grand scheme of things will get hit within the next 5-20 years ($1M/btc-$10M/btc for the longer timeframe) However, I do not remember posting $300k/btc before 2025, maybe before eoy 2025 The peak of every bitcoin bull market has been November to December of the year after halving That would mean Nov-Dec of 2025 will be the peak of this bull market cycle if it follows previous cycles it happened in Nov, 2021 It happened in Dec, 2017 It happened in Dec, 2013 There were no previous halving before 2012