I really liked this one. Generally I agree with what you said. Just wanted to point it out that originally making Bitcoin was an intellectual exercise and social experience and not a money making adventure (supposedly) Also, it wasn't the first try at a virtual currency, back in the late 90s there were a couple of unsuccessful venture capital firms trying to spread the idea. What people also have to realize that certain new inventions are worthless without adopters. If you have 1 computer in the whole world, sure you can make computations with it, but not much else. You need other people with computers to get the benefits of networking,etc. So you have 1 million Bitcoin. It is worthless unless you give it away to a pizzaguy or whomever. Once people start to adopt it, that's when the value is getting added to the invention. Bitcoin has been in a bubble since the $30 price if anyone ask me, just look at the chart, it went parabolic back then. Now where will it stop and burst (and you know it is not going to stabilize at a nice high price) who knows? Since the world is big and the cat got out of the bag, my guess is that it is going to take a series of crashes and thousands of people getting burnt before it comes down and becomes steady. The more people gets hurt, the worst it is going to be for the experience/idea.
I've given it some thought, and concluded something epic is going on here. The free market is developing competing currencies to debt-based, fiat. That's what Bitcoin and all these other crypto-currencies are - competitors to the fractional reserve monopoly. The ECB issued a report stating that crypto-currencies like Bitcoin threaten their legitimacy. The FED and FBI vilified Bitcoin, in an attempt to shut it down. Why? You get flack when you're over the target.... Bitcoin caught on because it excels where fiat doesn't: 1) It's easily transferable - it's not subject to Government capital controls, "know your customer" rules, banker spying, and transfer caps, like digital or paper fiat, gold, diamonds, any tangible currency. Send money over the web, electronically! Or on paper. Or via usb drive. It's easy. No big (and bigger) brother telling you who, where, what, how much and when. 2) It's easily preserved - Western Bank failures are now a real possibility. There is no more implicit guarantee. ECB is talking the Cyprus model for Italy and Spain. Bank deposits are not secure, in these times. Bitcoin is. USB drive? Cloud server? Offline computer? Store it there. Nice and safe. Impervious to confiscation, nationalization, bankruptcy, or some other theft. IOW, the Government cannot shut this down. It's decentralized money. 3) It's a deflating currency - only 21 million coins will be minted, at an increasing difficultly. USD value is 2% of what it was in 1913 (introduction of the FED). 4) And best of all - it's debt-free. This is the part that is the real worry here. This is a debt-free currency. People never get this. This is why we have endless debates about the FED that never get resolved. We PAY a constant vig to the bankers, to use our own money. Every dollar in circulation - digital or fiat - represents a debt, to someone, somewhere, that is accumulating "interest" to some bank, that acts as a sort of parasitical, obsolete middle-man to the commercial goings-on of the nation. They collect a continual vig on doing NOTHING. This is what economists are calling the "rentier" class, that sit and collect rents all day, while producing nothing of value. Eliminate the middle man, and suddenly, people have a lot more money in their wallets, and the country is much better off. Bitcoin is revolutionary this way. It is DEBT FREE money. There is no middle-man, that is taking 2-5% of each dollar, year after year after year. Think about it. Bankers, at a ~4% rate of interest, earn the total supply of money issued in year#1, after 25 years. This is zero sum! Eliminate these fools and we're all ALOT RICHER. Every currency excels in some areas, and is weak in others. Even fiat. But this is why Bitcoin is a legitimate business model and why it has "stuck". It beats fiat, gold, and other tangibles, in some key, key areas, namely transferability (fiat is subject to heavy controls), and preservation (digital fiat easily confiscated, nationalized during banking failures). As more and more people use it, the economic benefits of being a truly debt-free currency, will manifest. As more people abandon debt-based fiat, more money will circulate amongst the real economy, and people will be generally better off. Bitcoin, is essentially an open source banking system. Sounds fucked, but that's what it is. Open source banking lol. Can it work? I don't know. I guess the answer to that - did Linux work? At the end of the day, none of us are genius programmers. But if the open-source nature of the bit-coin ledger makes it impervious to viruses and other malicious attacks (propagated by Central Bankers and the CIA who have a vested interest in keeping us on the reservation so they can track, trace and rob us), then yes, I think it can work. I think the play now for a layman like me, is to buy bitcoin. Mining is possible. The "fast" cards are old technology, but this requires a big level of technical knowledge i don't have. The two big suppliers are real slow to get any dedicated mining servers to market. No real incentive for them to do so. Much more profitable to mine themselves, at these levels. The second way to profit is to get in early on copy-cats. I think bitcoins value will be determined largely by it's competition (like every currency is....). Litecoins and other copy-cats, if they implement the same model, with the same strengths, should take market share away. These represent better value, to get in at these prices, like Peklo and others mentioned. Although, first-movers tend to do best. Paypal. Amazon. Yahoo. Google. In early, and they often take the cake. I thought this was bullshit at the start, but I was wrong. This looks very much like the real deal. That said, Bitcoin trades like everything else. It's going parabolic. Should experience a sharp sell off soon. Good time to get in. Buy the dips. This is what Ron Paul talked about. Legalize competing currencies. Except Bitcoin can't be effectively outlawed. The Government can't really do anything about it. So it's effectively "legal". Despite exponential coining, Bitcoins value has remained relatively stable the past few years. And this year, gone parabolic. The market is telegraphing it likes this. How is this any different than Tulip Bulbs? There's a cap on the level "coins" available, at an increasing difficultly to mine. Otherwise, there is no inherent value in the coin, per se, except for people demanding it. Much like fiat.
My intuition tells me that BitCoin will end up causing huge amounts of losses to thousands of people. A lot of people who like living in virtual land will lose their shirts and will become overnight worthless. When a bubble like this pops, it won't give anyone time of 5 days to cover their positions. Its electronic - it will all be done with and blow away in hot smoke in hours. I feel sorry for the folks who are actually putting in money into this for long-term. Finally, I could be wrong - for all I know
Think about it. Why can't Bitcoin be outlawed effectively. Marijuana is outlawed but people do use it. Of course, some people will continue to use it. But the day Washington passes a law making it illegal to trade in Bitcoin, the currency will take a 90% beating in value. My point is Government does not have to go into people's home and check their computers. Just outlawing itself will have a huge impact on people's psychology and currency will take a 90% plunge overnight. Analogy - how many FX brokers accept US customers? Just because government says its illegal. Not a perfect analogy but you get the idea. Cheers.
Doubtful. Outlawing drugs and alcohol (remember Prohibition?) did nothing to curtail use. Same with prostitution and gambling. Further, Bitcoin "use" is far more clandestine and difficult to detect than the above activities. And it doesn't hurt anybody. So the moral objections don't exist. Now the FEDs will do their damndest to paint Bitcoin as the choice of pedophiles and terrorists. I wouldn't be surprised if there's some high profile busts shortly of wanted Al Queda bad guys and egregious pedos that exclusively used bitcoin. The horror. What they'll also do is put big pressure on Fortune 500 internet merchants (ebay, amazon, google, paypal) to NOT accept payment in Bitcoin. Problem is, there's lots of competing crypto-currencies taking off now. US Dollars are the preferred currency of terrorists, drug cartels and pedophiles worldwide. Shall we outlaw US Dollars, too? And prosecute the Treasury Department? Anyway, the argument is moot. Bernacke and the rest of his Banker phags can suck a big fat one. Crypto-currencies are here to stay. Look at them shaking in their pants. It's beautiful: Bitcoinâs Gains May Fuel Central Bank Concerns http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...l-central-bank-concerns-chart-of-the-day.html