That's very fair analysis. I'm sorry but I will have to disagree with you in the current time. If we're talking purely technicals, yes, I'll have nothing to counter your argument. However, the numbers are published by GBTC, and they cannot lie or make up these numbers or the SEC will go after them. Are the reported numbers from PayPal and Square trustworthy? I don't really know but I see no reason that they would be off by any significant amount. There's simply too much demand for bitcoins hence pushing the price to this level above $30K and that demand is going to keep the price high as the number of coins supplies on the exchanges keep dwindling. I only mentioned these 3 entities responsible for the buying demand. I did not mention institutions or UHNW or hedge funds buying up bitcoins (fomo in that space). [Heard on CNBC that this bitcoin upmove is 3 SD even for bitcoin that is very volatile, so I'm not completely oblivious that it's been a very frothy bitcoin/cryptos trading environment]
All outcomes are possible, I suggested just one as I could be wrong, You are correct there is decent demand but the market is thin on both sides. It might settle around 30k, but my theory is based on it correcting with the stock market/Nasdaq...
today BTC broke the day range record. day/night is not over yet. as of now, today's range is 6200 points. the 2nd biggest day range is 5700 points.
Are there any inverse bitcoin ETFs? https://www.etfstrategy.com/amun-launches-inverse-bitcoin-etp-on-six-10339/
I am not sure if your analysis is correct or not, but since 3 weeks back, I can clearly see a typical "Time Arbitrage" happening in Bitcoin spot against the futures market. To elaborate, imagine that you have massive buy orders for Bitcoin spot over the weekend, what do you do? You load up on CME futures on Friday prior to the close and then start executing your spot orders during the weekend, pushing the price up nicely by like %20-%30 and when the markets open on Sunday night, you are simply sitting on a nice profit from your long future contracts. Who takes the other side of the trade in the futures? Probably the Dealers and I am sure they are not happy with that because essentially they can't hedge their positions during the weekend. CME will have to do something about that or else the futures volumes will dry up or simply the prices between spot & futures will widen (Creating another arbitrage opportunity).
The ETN was actually dead in terms of volume until November 2020 (When the bull run in Bitcoin started), only then it started seeing volume coming in. The tendency of people to counter trade clear trends never stops to amaze me.
BTC has been riding (and often outside) the BB2 SD, but it hasn't been beyond the BB 3SD since late Dec breakout:-