with all respect, I am totally against this idea. BTC price will not fall below 50K before it climes above 90 k.
CoinDesk (Worldwide) 1.9K Followers The Dollar Won, but Might the U.S. Lose Control of the Dollar? Opinion by Paul Brody • 21h • 4 min read MARKETS TODAY newsletter here. To put these two in perspective, the U.S. economy represents about 25% of global output – a level that has been stable for over 40 years (an astonishing achievement when you consider the rapid growth achieved in China, parts of Asia, and Eastern Europe). When it comes to global finance, though, the dollar is even more dominant than the U.S. economy. The Bank of International Settlements estimates that the U.S. dollar is used in 90% of all international payments and settlements, with 40% of all trade invoiced in U.S. dollars. In the world of blockchain stablecoins, the U.S. dollar represents 99% of all global stablecoin transactions. (USDT and USDC, the leading players, are both USD-backed and based on Ethereum.) All these U.S. dollar transactions put much of the world’s financial infrastructure within reach of U.S. regulators. Most of these U.S. dollars are electronic and consequently they all have ties back to U.S. banks and, in turn, eventually, U.S. regulators and the U.S. Federal Reserve. The extra-territorial nature of U.S. law and the reach of U.S. institutions and digital networks makes it very difficult to transact in dollars without encountering U.S. regulations. There’s always cash, but the largest bill printed by the U.S. Treasury today is $100. That will get you dinner in New York, for one (no wine). Imagine how many of them you’ll need to cover the cost of that new aircraft carrier. For any substantial funding requirements, you need digital payments. This dollar dominance gives the U.S. considerable power in the global markets, especially when it comes to sanctions against individuals and governments. Banks, wary of being cut off from 90% of all global payments, are going to follow U.S. directives whether they are binding or not. Other countries have tried to supplant the dollar, largely without success. There is, however, a new option that exists: synthetic dollars on a blockchain. Synthetic dollars are dollar-denominated stable coins that contain no dollars. Instead, they are digital tokens that are pegged to the U.S. dollar in value but backed by a mix of other real and digital assets and managed by an algorithm to maintain a peg with the U.S. dollar. In the world of blockchain, they are known as algorithmic stablecoins. Algorithmic stablecoins aren’t perfect and they aren’t risk free. Because they are dollar-denominated but often don’t consist of dollars, they can “lose their peg” with the U.S. dollar. Sometimes this happens because of fraud, but it can also happen when the underlying assets change rapidly in value. In periods of high market turmoil and uncertainty, this happens. Synthetic dollars, in effect, can cost more than “real” dollars because you need to over-capitalize your collateral in order to avoid the risk of losing that alignment with the U.S. dollar. Despite these risks, quite a few blockchain-based digital assets have been established with a peg to the U.S. dollar. The dai, from MakerDAO, is probably the most successful of these, though its backing today includes some U.S. dollar assets. There are others, however, that are pegged purely based on cryptocurrencies and other digital assets that do not connect with the dollar. See also: Crypto's Transition: Bringing Capital Onshore | Opinion Widespread availability of these assets could alter the regulatory landscape for individuals, companies, and governments – allowing them to transact in the world’s standard currency of choice while remaining outside the U.S. regulatory structure. This would be particularly useful when those people want to move money across borders or buy goods that are globally priced in U.S. dollars, such as oil. Not everyone really wants a synthetic stablecoin. Their share of the market is relatively small compared to stablecoins that are wholly or partially backed with U.S.-dollar-denominated assets. When it comes to risk and cost, a U.S. dollar stablecoin that is backed with U.S. dollars or U.S. -dollar-denominated assets like U.S. Treasury bonds̅ by far the lowest risk option. It’s clear that many users prefer this to other choices for that reason. The implications for U.S. policy are significant. Widespread adoption of these assets could diminish the power of sanctions and the reach of U.S. regulatory structures. To head off that risk, perhaps the simplest strategy for the U.S. is to speed up the approval and regulatory integration of existing U.S.-dollar-backed stablecoins. The U.S. dollar is more than just a currency; it’s a strategic asset for the United States and a global symbol of our national resiliency and economic power. That’s worth protecting.
I agree that shit like this will be on the horizon. But if then want to ban money that an adversary uses, shouldn't they ban USD??? I think the public is getting stronger, and from my readings, its the population that chooses what money they want to use. Like I keep saying, I leave it up to the government to create every incentive and provide every advertising campaign for why everyone should own bitcoin. I know that most of the smart guys say that the USD is in no risk of getting dethroned and that all the talk about BRICS currency is just talk. And its true that everyone needs US dollars since this is what all the debt is priced in. But I also think that it only takes a couple of countries, small countries, to make a change, and when the rest of them see that nothing bad has happened, this will accelerate. Its like waiting to cross the street. There are no cars coming, and all pedestrians are patiently waiting for the crosswalk sign. Some guy decides to just go for it, and before you know it, everyone follows the leader. The US will literally have to keep rates high just to keep people wanting to hold onto dollars or USTs or to continue to borrow in USD. And we of course know that rates even at 5% are absolutely killing the economy and government finances. If they manage to start dropping rates, holding USD becomes even less palatable.
This is also exactly why I think the cycles are going to be different going forward. Either we no longer have the 75-85% drawdowns every 4 years, or, because of how easy it will be to sell the ETF, the drawdowns will be even worse. I have no way to even guess at which it could be, but I'm honestly fairly certain that green, green, green, red, is over. Plus, when bitcoin lets say does hit 500k, or even 1M and hence passed gold, it will be a totally different asset class. Gold did have those 50% drawdowns during the Weimar Republic in that famous chart we all saw with regards to the hyperinflation, but that too I think is old news. My best case scenario is a quick move up to some huge price of like 500k or so, and then all the people who sold on the way up locking in profits and waiting for the dump don't get it. Then they are forced to buy back in at higher prices, pushing it to 1M. Of course when this happens there will be major problems with the economy and real estate and government finances, etc, so that will be a wild card, but as much as I'm gonna want to take profits, I will also be scared to for fear of what I just outlined.
With a daily close above minor wave 4 high of Wave C (dark black horiz line) it would likely mean correction is over and new highs in the near future:- TWT
Depends on the investor profile of the majority investors in these etf's, 13F filings are showing a good start of a trend, banks, insurance companies, pension funds, and now the recent notes at some of the investor presentation (read the Twitter thread on my post) show a lot of interest from RIA's and wealth managers and then if Blackrock presentation notes are accurate, Sovereign wealth funds and Pension funds, same with Fidelity reports These investor types are allocators, not so much interested in wild gains of $1M/btc, they will probably re-balance along the way, they already have a lot of fiat wealth, they are not trying to hit a homerun with their bitcoin investment They want exposure in the form 1-5% on this asset class, and if you read the reports from Cathie Wood Ark, this alone could push the price of bitcoin above hundreds of thousands of $ /btc, the Ark pitch deck is somewhere on this forum Still, a bear market will probably drive the price down over 50%, grind down, as there's no liquidity for buyers while sellers have to sell to raise liquidity Loose global central banks (money printers) monetary policy is very important, bull market for stock market, and crypto assets and real estate and others
My colleague Joe Easton shared the following view: Technically for Bitcoin I am looking at a key level of 61255. On a monthly chart 3/1/21 BTC had a monthly high of 61255 prior to the reversal that brought us to 28800. Followed by a new high. WE recently traded below this prior resistance, although we are still closing above this level on the weekly.
Well, I cannot be sure of it, it's just my take on the trend. It is still continuing that way, and there is a chance for it to go that low. My argument here is that it will take a lot of time to get that high to pass 90k and until then it will just keep going lower lower. I guess it all rides on how long the trends will take, but we can agree on the overall outcome of it which is a great pump.