https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-price-1-million-february-1st-2028-new-model/ If bitcoin follows historical trends, it could tip $1 million by February 1st 2028. Based on extrapolating Timothy Peterson’s ‘never look back’ chart which tracks bitcoin’s lower troughs. The chart echoes Plan B’s ‘stock to flow’ model which puts BTC at $1 million near the end of the next decade. Plenty of analysts have predicted a million-dollar bitcoin. But few have targeted such a specific date. By analyzing historical bitcoin price action, however, it’s estimated that BTC could hit $1 million on precisely February 1st, 2018. The million-dollar target has been extrapolated from Timothy Peterson’s ‘Never Look Back’ analysis. Peterson explains that bitcoin maintains an ever-growing ‘Never Look Back’ price. In other words, a price floor that is never breached as adoption grows. You can visualise it best in the chart below. Ignore the euphoric ‘bubbles’ and you’ll see a steady rise in bitcoin’s price floor. Source: Timothy Peterson / Craig Hammell Peterson said: Bitcoin has a relatively unnoticed and — for most — unknown characteristic. I call it the “Never Look Back Price.” The NLB price is the last time bitcoin was at a particular price level. Once it reached that price, it only proceeded up, it never retraced to that value again. How we get to $1 million bitcoin When Peterson plotted the ‘Never Look Back’ price on a logarithmic scale, a strong trend emerged over bitcoin’s decade-long history. Up and to the right. Timothy Peterson’s original analysis. Source: Cane Island Craig Hammell, a software engineer at Coinbase, has since extrapolated the historical data to form a rough estimate of future price. The analysis includes a maximum price, minimum price, andmedian expected price. Bitcoin’s expected price in 2028 is $1 million and maximum price is even higher, based on extrapolating historical data from the ‘Never Look Back’ chart. Source: Timothy Peterson / Craig Hammell Based on the model, bitcoin’s expected price on February 1st 2028 is $1 million. The maximum price on that date is almost $1.5 million. Why ‘Never Look Back’ price matters Peterson’s ‘never look back’ price represents the core adoption of bitcoin. It represents, as Trace Mayer puts it, the “hodlers of last resort.” People that have bought bitcoin and will hold it for the long, long term. Hence why it won’t drop back below a certain level. This group’s behavior is not just long-term focused, it is infinite-term focused. These people are the bitcoin adopters. This group provides a floor value for bitcoin’s price. This trend can also be seen in bitcoin’s annual low price. Rather than tracking the euphoric tops and volatile uptrends, look instead at bitcoin’s yearly lows. With the exception of one year, it has always grown. HODLers are the floor. They are the revolutionaries that have preserved and grown Bitcoin. Not the first million-dollar bitcoin price target Bitcoin has always been subject to wild price targets. But 2019 has seen a wave of strong mathematical models to back up the predictions. Best-known is bitcoin’s stock-to-flow model, published by pseudonymous bitcoin quantitative analyst Plan B. His work extrapolates price data based on the scarcity model used to track gold and silver. Bitcoin’s stock-to-flow model also puts bitcoin at $1 million some time after 2029. #bitcoin path to $1.000.000. Model based on stock-to-flow (SF). Note the powerlaw relationship: SF2x=Price10x is constant, over 8 orders of magnitude, with 95% R2. pic.twitter.com/sgIRzDyi4q — PlanB (@100trillionUSD) March 5, 2019 And who could forget John McAfee’s promise to “eat his d**k” on national television if bitcoin doesn’t hit $1 million by the end of 2020. Come on people!!! It’s time to brush up your basic math skills and run some f*^#$ng numbers!!!! It is mathematically impossible for Bitcoin to be less than $1 mil by the end of 2020. McAfee’s $1 million by the end of 2020 might seem farfetched, but a million-dollar bitcoin in the next ten years? It’s starting to sound plausible.
Removed USDT shit, and let is trade in real currency, then let's see what happens. Such articles are a bait for schmucks.
More likely by 2150. If we will be so great at producing in-capble of thinking individuals, every 10 years. Someone definitely has an interest, of boosting masses into falling for BTC once more, with articles like this. But how much of that buying power remains ? Like, how many people blew up in 2018 crash. Wheres the buying power, would come once more ? Bitcoin , Peer-to-peers lending, Robinhood, companies without earning in recent IPOs,... In the next beer market, gonna be interesting. But ,,A forensic study on bitcoin’s 2017 boom has found that nearly the entire rise of the digital currency at the time is attributable to “one large player,” although the market manipulator remains unidentified.'' , hmnnnm, how is it so, that they identified few noobs from china, who manipulated 800 stocks, and they can't identify this one. How many 70%-80%-90% crashes it would experience once more , before reaching such highs and how fast, after 4'rd or 5'rd crash, the Fincen or something like, would investigate the truth behind that single-unknown-manipulator, which would be a tremendous hit for btc. Like, if whoever that is, would be gone out of the game, there would be no more fuel from the public, to drive it up, to euphoria stage once more.
Looks to me more like the typical 1-2-3 pattern, and that BTC is headed back sub-1000. If that 4k level breaks again, we'll see how many HODLers keep the faith vs. rush to sell out. Silver 1955-1992 - another bubble peak driven by a single large whale (the Hunt bros):
So he fit a linear regression, extrapolated it without considering variance, and determined bitcoin will be worth a million dollars. Well, damn, if it was this easy I would've quit math after calculus! There's no indication of R^2 in the blog post and there's no mention of ARIMA+GARCH processes. So it's safe to say this guy has completely ignored basically every important metric in forward looking extrapolations. So I have two conclusions: 1. Who is paying the guy? Coinbase, who stands to profit from shill posts like this. 2. The model is wrong on the most fundamental level imaginable. EDIT: The R^2 in the twitter post is likely invalid as well. Throwing around terms like "power law" without discussing how the best predictor for any price is the mean just says this is a shill twitter post by a guy who read a few hacker news articles on quant finance. What is clear is that once bitcoins can no longer be mined the price becomes unbounded. However, does this price represent anything at all? I don't think so. There will not be any removal of bitcoins from the pool and the price will likely fix at some value, preventing any further growth from happening. Or you know, it'll go to $0 after all bitcoins have been mined, representing it's true intrinsic value, because all of the big swinging dicks will sell at the peak price and it'll be worthless. Just like when every ounce of gold and silver has been mined - except those will converge on their market price for electronics. It's pure speculation. But of course the resident bitcoin shills will ignore basically anything done on price prediction by mathematicians if a few graphs confirm their biases.
Yeah but he's really not. Just because he acts like a troll might be stupid to someone looking at outside appearances, but can't exactly call him a retard when he has made billions of dollars something you will probably never have. Just like a lot of people think that our great president is stupid, when he is the reason why our economy is doing so well...