I saw a podcast recently that made a lot of sense to me on why this crypto bull market cycle is very different from the past Regular retail are not the ones moving this market Institutions, pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, hedge funds, corporations, and also retail but more capitalized They are not investing in bitcoin to get a 1000% or 10,000%+, but to allocate some portfolio value away from bonds or real estate both of which are not doing too well A retail that is a millionaire allocates 5-10% of net worth into bitcoin at $110k/btc The current pullback from ath is a non-event Multiply that mental mindset by a factor of 1000x in relation to the other cohorts, If bitcoin goes down to $110k these investors will add to their positions not sell and be scared away like regular retail When bitcoin goes to $200k, they will allocate more, having more confidence that bitcoin is the best store of value portfolio allocation asset Bitcoin is a $2+ Trillion global monetary asset. This is fact. This is normalized
Exactly why volatility has declined over time, but also why BTC moves overall whichever way markets go.
Bitcoin is starting to decouple from stocks. I've seen the stock markets go down while Bitcoin goes up lately, and it's going to happen more and more which will eventually make Bitcoin a safe haven asset
Yesterday stock market was down a lot and bitcoin was also down and gold was up, but there was a screenshot I posted about a month or so ago when bitcoin was up a lot and gold was up also and stock market was down Bitcoin is a safe haven asset but a lot of the institutional investors still do not see it that way But let's talk about these institutional investors and hnw investors, they need allocation to bitcoin Bitcoin does not have earnings, it operates on supply and demand... There's $1 Quadrillion of wealth in the world, bitcoin is 20 bps of that wealth $2 Trillion, Blackrock says bitcoin should be 5% portfolio allocation, Rick Edelman says 10% minimum up to 40% i As Rick Edelman says, based on modern portfolio theory, get off 0% now, in 5 years, you will be ahead of the 99% of the world that is currently short bitcoin 5% (Blackrock) puts bitcoin at $2.5M/btc 10% = $5M/btc
And that is ok, even as the majority of the bitcoiners believe otherwise but bitcoin gets the bad and the good.... hence my long explanation of institutional investors mindset on portfolio allocation
There is another thing that Bitcoin doesn't have. I've realized this myself, but I will give the credit to Luke Gromen for saying it a few times. It doesn't have any utility, unlike silver and gold, and worst of all, oil. They say its the petro-dollar that is the world reserve currency. If oil spikes because of the financial premium, its game over for the economy. If silver does it, same thing (and hence why its not really that financialized today, since its so important for industrial use). With gold, we need it for some components, but if gold really becomes the world reserve asset and goes up 5-10x, other countries like China have a shit ton, so it also benefits them. But with bitcoin, a 10x increase to stabilize the world doesn't have any negative impact to any crucial system. Luke said no industry is harmed from this sudden revaluation. So he has this story about when Trump said Bitcoin is the new oil, going back to the 70's when oil did a 4x very quickly to establish the petro-dollar, it hurt stuff. But this time around, bitcoin won't hurt anything by going up 10x, but it will stabilize all the financial stuff. The going theory is that everyone, even the US, wants a neutral world reserve asset. The world sees what the US had to suffer in order to be it for the last 50 years, and no country wants this role.
This is also why I laugh when I hear people talking about how Bitcoin has no cash flow, you can't use it for anything, etc, and they say all this as a negative. To me, its a huge positive. Yes, its only good for one thing. It can only prove that I have a piece of something and that my piece is bigger than your piece. But that is all we want it to do. I don't understand how Saylor talks about it like digital energy. I can't charge up my phone with it. Yes, I can sell sats to pay an electricity bill, but its not storage. You literally can't do anything with it other than hold it or send it. But that means that it can focus on being just the perfect version of this one thing. Paper bills for example, once they get worthless enough, are sometimes better at providing heat, if you burn them, then they are at holding value. So if your chosen method for storing value has competing use cases, its a big problem for the store of value property. Imagine if food was used as a store of value, and now, instead of stores selling food to eat, people bought food to store and hoard, we would all go hungry. We have already seen what this did to the housing market, houses used as bank accounts, and that's a disaster that is about to crash. This is also where the database argument for bitcoin has me all fired up. If the blockchain is a database for the highest bidder, this competing use case makes bitcoin a worse form of money. So when I hear bitcoincers arguing that blockspace can be used for anything if you pay the fee, I get very upset. Non-monetary transactions will kill bitcoin like real estate investors killed the housing aspirations for many. And now, the boom and bust cycle for housing will crash the economy again. So I'm a huge proponent of no spam or storage on the blockchain. (sorry for the rant!)
bitcoin could be the most expensive and shittiest database that wastes enormous amounts of electricity just to calculate a random number and people would still love it if the price went up high enough. Oh wait... Bitcoin is useless garbage that people believe in because price keeps going up relentlessly over the last 15 years. And price to large degree is inflated by Tether printing unbacked fake Tether dollars (and then real $$$ FOMO in). But the insiders/early whales are taking profits, miners are taking profits and eventually the scheme will collapse once it all turns around (we are very close).
Crickets! what's wrong boys? I told you 70ks before 250k lol. @johnarb what are your talking head bosses saying now? Where are all the screenshots of your heros posting projections for this drop???? @Baron you really should consider locking this topic from anybody who doesn't have at least a 2005 Lambo...if they don't have that at a minimum by this point, they are not qualified to be talking about bitcoin. Also can I switch to wxyguy? I already registered it so just merge the accounts. It is a simple procedure in vb...